The 2025 UNC football season will get underway when TCU visits Monday night for a primetime, nationally televised matchup under the lights at Kenan Stadium. It’s the first of a two-game series between the Tar Heels and the Horned Frogs, who will face off again next August in Dublin, Ireland as part of the 2026 Aer Lingus College Football Classic.
TCU finished the 2024 season with a 9-4 overall record and 6-3 mark in the Big 12 Conference, handily beating Louisiana 34-3 in the New Mexico Bowl to conclude the year. The Horned Frogs are just three years removed from a historic 2022 season, which saw them advance to the national title game.
If you aren’t familiar with TCU, here’s a quick breakdown before the Frogs visit Chapel Hill:
Head coach: Sonny Dykes. Dykes is in his fourth season leading the Horned Frogs. He won several major national coach of the year awards in 2022 for his work at TCU, though his next two years have not lived up to that lofty standard. The Frogs finished 5-7 overall and failed to qualify for a bowl in 2023 before rebounding with nine wins in 2024. Ironically, Dykes’ prior two stops before being hired by TCU were ACC schools – though neither was in the ACC at the time. Dykes was the head coach at Cal from 2013 through 2016 and then at SMU from 2017 through 2021.
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes speaks during the Big 12 NCAA college football media days in Frisco, Texas, Wednesday, July 9, 2025. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
What’s the history? UNC and TCU have met three previous times, with the Tar Heels winning all three games. The two teams squared off in a home-and-home series during head coach Mack Brown’s first tenure in Chapel Hill, with Carolina winning 27-17 in Kenan Stadium in 1994 and 31-10 in Fort Worth in 1997. Prior to those two games, the only other meeting came in 1940, when head coach Raymond “Bear” Wolf’s Tar Heels defeated the Horned Frogs 21-14 in Chapel Hill.
The Frog Prince:Â TCU quarterback Josh Hoover enters the 2025 season on the heels of a highly productive sophomore campaign. Hoover ranked among the nation’s top 10 quarterbacks in pass attempts (471), completions (313) and yards (3,949, a program record) and received an honorable mention All-Big 12 nod. Unsurprisingly, TCU’s passing offense also ranked in the nation’s top 10. Hoover’s 61 completions of at least 20 yards ranks No. 1 for returning players across the entire FBS, and he is the only returning quarterback to average at least 300 yards per game (303.8) and have a passer rating of at least 150 (151.1) last season.
Josh Hoover (#10) had one of TCU’s best-ever seasons by a quarterback in 2024. (Image via TCU Athletics)
Weakness vs. Weakness:Â For as productive as TCU was through the air in 2024, the Frogs’ rushing attack croaked more often than not. TCU ranked 112th out of 133 FBS teams with 113.9 rushing yards per game (for comparison, UNC ranked 38th with 182.3). Not helping matters is the departure of two key running backs to the transfer portal in the offseason, including potential starter Cam Cook (nine touchdowns in 2024). The Frogs did add UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes through the portal, who averaged 4.9 yards per rush across four years with the Roadrunners.
Trying to quell Barnes and company will be a UNC rushing defense which ranked almost exactly in the middle of FBS in rushing defense last season: 66th out of 133 at 149.5 yards allowed per game. However, the Tar Heels lost almost their entire defensive line to either the transfer portal or graduation, including stars Beau Atkinson and Kaimon Rucker. A piecemeal defensive front will have to stop a questionable – at best – ground game.
Crooked numbers: TCU’s defense rested squarely in the middle of the pack in 2024 – the Frogs ranked 45th in the nation by allowing roughly 345 total yards of offense per game (UNC was 72nd with 375) and 63rd in scoring defense by allowing around 24 points per game (UNC was 89th at 28). But like Carolina, the Frogs were not immune to allowing offense explosions. TCU opponents scored at least 30 points five times in 13 games in 2024, with three more near-misses of opponents scoring 27 or 28. That includes a 66-42 shellacking at the hands of College Football Playoff-bound SMU in mid-September. TCU was also among the worst defenses in the country on third down, allowing teams to convert 43.7 percent of the time and ranking 103rd out of 133 teams (UNC ranked 38th at 36.2 percent). TCU’s defense did improve over time, however, as the Frogs held opponents under 20 points in three of their last four contests, including the 34-3 bowl game victory.
What are the odds? Oddsmakers are giving TCU the slight edge on the road, favoring the Horned Frogs by 3.5 points.
Editor’s Note: This story was originally published on Thursday, Aug. 28.
Featured image via TCU Athletics
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