New Congressional Map Set to Make Impact in NC General Assembly Elections

One wrinkle in November’s state elections is a new congressional map in North Carolina. Following numerous attempts at redistricting, they are now set for the election. But will they make much of a difference for either party?

The maps, while used in the primaries, now may play more of a role in the general election. While Republicans hold majorities in both the North Carolina House and Senate, Democrats gained many seats in the General Assembly during the 2018 midterm elections. The difference now is a ten-seat hold in the House and an eight-seat advantage in the Senate for the GOP.

Director of Public Policy Polling Tom Jensen recently spoke with 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck about the races across the state. He said the altered congressional districts do make two clear areas where Democrats might easily earn seats this fall.

“The new Senate map creates a strong Democratic district in Wake County and a strong Democratic district in Mecklenburg County,” Jensen said. “Democrats are pretty much guaranteed to pick up two Senate seats, assuming they can protect all of their incumbents.”

From there, the Democratic Party would need to pick up two additional seats in the Senate to draw even. Jensen said that is a more difficult task. Models project five seats where Democratic candidates are competitive, but a similarity indicates the districts still run red.

“What they all have in common is that [their populace] voted for Donald Trump by double-digits,” explained Jensen. “The state as a whole only voted for Trump by three-and-a-half percent, but even with these new lines, the sort of median district in the state is a lot more Republican than the state as a whole.”

The polling director said the voting patterns of the midterm elections are not as likely to carry over when examining these races. He said in 2018, the majority of Democratic victories picked up seats in suburban districts with more diverse demographics. The makeup of these contested Senate districts are much different and according to Jensen, Democratic candidates face an uphill battle.

“This time around,” he said, “they’re going to have to win in places where maybe the party was stronger 20 years ago than it is now. It’s sort of a ‘blast from the past’ attempt at winning back some of these rural areas that have gone away.”

One county neighboring both Orange and Chatham Counties has some of the more competitive districts. Alamance County sees races in both Senate District 24 and House District 63. Jensen described the latter as particularly important to the Democratic Party’s efforts to make headway in the House, having lost by just 500 votes in 2018.

He also said that House district is one where the new congressional map could factor into the race.

“Democrats almost won it in 2018 and now it’s about a five-point more Democratic district than last time around,” said Jensen. “I think it’s going to still be close, but I think that’s where Democrats have a good opportunity.”

Election Day for North Carolina, and the rest of the United States, is November 3.

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New Congressional Map Set to Make Impact in NC General Assembly Elections

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