The midterm elections took place earlier this month, with Democrats taking gains across the map in North Carolina and across the country, winning some closely watched races.
While some argue that midterm election results are irrelevant to presidential election cycles, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Poling says the sheer increase in voter turnout could show a trend.
“The fact that turnout was so high this year, so much closer to a presidential year than it normally is, I think lends some credence to the theory that the midterm results actually do mean more for the presidential race this year maybe than they did last time around,” says Jensen.
Nowhere is there a better opportunity for Democrats to move the needle in 2020 than in North Carolina, Jensen says, as the state has become one of the most important swing states in the country.
“North Carolina is going to be right back to being the epicenter of the country politically in 2020,” says Jensen. “When you look at the state map for 2020, North Carolina is the most competitive state in the presidential race that’s also going to have a very competitive US Senate race.”
In North Carolina, Democrats were able to break the GOP supermajorities in the state House and Senate, despite gerrymandered districts drawn by Republican lawmakers.
Jensen says these district lines could be drastically different in 2020, and that would give Democrats an easier path to victory.
“We’re probably not going to have another election under these maps,” says Jensen. “We’re probably going to have an election under much more fair and competitive maps than the ones right now.”
Common Cause North Carolina, a nonpartisan watchdog organization, has filed a lawsuit in state court arguing that the district maps are unconstitutional partisan gerrymanders and should be replaced before the 2020 elections.
