A new survey from Public Policy Polling shows support for the six constitutional amendments on this fall’s ballot is down dramatically since the referendums were approved by state lawmakers earlier this year.
“There’s considerably greater opposition to the amendments among people who have already voted than those who have not yet voted,” PPP director Tom Jensen said Thursday on The Aaron Keck Show.
Two of the six amendments have drawn criticism from prominent Republicans and Democrats across the state. All five living former North Carolina governors – three Democrats and two Republicans – jointly appeared earlier this year to announce their opposition to the two proposals that would shift power from the governor’s office to the General Assembly.
Both of the proposals “are most likely going to fail,” Jensen said, based on the latest public opinion numbers.
The amendment that would move power to fill judicial vacancies from the governor to the legislature is opposed by 43 percent of respondents to the latest PPP survey, conducted October 26 – October 28. Support for the proposal is down to 29 percent with 27 percent saying they were not sure how they would vote.
Among those surveyed, 40 percent said they opposed the amendment that would alter the state’s Board of Elections and how its members are appointed. That is compared to 32 percent of respondents supporting the proposal and 28 percent not sure.
Jensen predicted the amendment lowering the cap on state income tax will be the closest on election night. The proposal would lower the cap from the current 10 percent level to seven percent. The current tax rate, meanwhile, is just under 5.5 percent.
The tax cap proposal is drawing support from 50 percent of survey respondents, compared to 32 percent opposed and 18 percent not sure.
Two other amendments are drawing much more support than opposition. The proposal that would “protect the right of the people to hunt, fish, and harvest wildlife” has 27 percent more respondents supporting it than opposed to the amendment at 57-30. The proposal known as Marsy’s Law, which is a nationwide push to “strengthen protections for victims of crime,” is up 59-27.
There has been a statewide Nix All Six campaign urging voters to vote against all of the amendments. Part of that effort has focused as much on opposition to the General Assembly as it has on the particular proposals.
Democrats have a three-point advantage over Republicans on the generic ballot, according to the survey.
Jensen said that would translate to Democrats picking up some seats and likely breaking at least one of the supermajorities in the state House or Senate.
In statewide judicial races, Democrat Anita Earls has a 14-point advantage over Republican incumbent Barbara Jackson. Chris Anglin, the second Republican in the race, is polling at 14 percent.
Races for two seats on the Court of Appeals are within a few points. Democrat John Arrowood leads Republican Andrew Heath by four points, 40-36. Democrat Allegra Collins and Republican Chuck Kitchen are in a virtual tie with Kitchen up 36-35. The third Court of Appeals seat also has two Republicans and one Democrat, with Toby Hampson, the Democrat, polling 12 points ahead of the highest-polling Republican Jefferson Griffin.
The final day of early voting is Saturday. Election Day is Tuesday.
See the full survey from PPP here – NorthCarolinaResults