We’re a month out from the last election, which means that 2016 races are well underway.
In addition to the presidential election, North Carolina is bracing for high-profile races for governor and a seat in the U.S. Senate.
Tom Jensen of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling says that current poll numbers reveal a sour electorate.
“What’s interesting with both Richard Burr and Pat McCrory is that they have negative approval ratings,” says Jensen. “For Richard Burr, he has a 31 percent approval, 36 percent disapproval. For McCrory, he has a 41 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval.
“But then, when you actually get into the head-to-heads, the Republicans, both McCrory and Burr, are ahead of all their potential Democratic opponents.”
Jensen says we may be seeing another of what he calls a “lesser-of-two-evils” election cycle.
“Maybe voters aren’t that thrilled with the Republican incumbent,” says Jensen, “but they aren’t necessarily that excited about the alternatives, either.”
A recent PPP poll tested Sen. Burr against outgoing Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, who was defeated last month by Republican Thom Tillis, the N.C. House speaker.
Burr comes out 46-43 in that hypothetical matchup. As Jensen points out, he may have a minus-5 approval rating, but Hagan’s is minus-13.
Speaking of Tillis, Jensen noted some interesting numbers in recent polling that are inconsistent with the usual “honeymoon period” a newly elected official enjoys.
“For Tillis, that’s not the case,” says Jensen. “Even as emerging as the winner last month, only 37 percent of voters in the state say they have a favorable opinion of him.”
Forty eight percent have an unfavorable opinion. Jensen says it speaks to the displeasure of North Carolina voters with their choices in recent elections.
He says that potential Democratic challengers to Gov. McCrory still have work to do when it comes to building name recognition. Right now, McCrory leads North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper 46-39; he’d beat State Treasurer Janet Cowell 47-36; and he leads former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, currently the U.S. secretary of transportation, by 48-34.
Turning to the presidential race: On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton dominates the North Carolina primary field at 52 percent. Nobody else comes close. Vice President Joe Biden, for example, is at 18 percent.
North Carolina Republicans favor retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson by four points over the second-place finisher, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
If Clinton is the nominee, it looks like North Carolina will once again, be a swing state. For now, all potential matchups are too close to call.
