Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case at the end of June, protests locally and nationally have been held against the ruling. Much of the messaging in addition to maintaining abortion access has been about voting in the fall midterms for candidates who favor such reproductive health care.
But will the overturning of Roe v. Wade by a conservative-dominant Supreme Court make a difference at the polls?
Public Policy Polling Director Tom Jensen said while the issue can be broadly painted as one that divides the country’s two main parties, data shows that the vast majority of people across Democrats and Republicans favor the right to have abortions. He pointed to a recent USA Today poll that found 61 opposed the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while just 24 percent of voters polled supported the decision.
“This is something where there are so many Republicans who are unhappy with it, in addition to Democrats being universally unhappy with it, that you get a 33-point margin against the Supreme Court Decision that was made. This is one of those rare issues.”
Jensen said with those numbers, it’s likely more moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters feel strongly about the issue – which differs from how those groups typically vote in midterm election cycles.
“Usually, those kinds of people just kind of vote against whatever party is in power,” he said. “But this decision may have the effect of reminding some of those people in the middle that this is the kind of thing that happens when Republicans are in power and maybe they need to vote Democrat for a third cycle in a row to keep more of this kind of thing from occurring.”
People chant ‘we have a voice and it’s pro-choice’ as they march around the Historic Courthouse during the abortion and women’s rights rally on Monday, June 27 in Pittsboro. (Photo via the Chatham News + Record.)
Jensen said data from Public Policy Polling’s efforts in 2022 have reflected a strong wave coming for Republicans to win elections this fall. But he said recent surveys the company completed may reflect how abortion has changed the tenor. Jensen described recent polling in Pennsylvania’s Congressional District 1, where Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzgerald saw a shift in support from winning by 13 points to just 6 points.
“[In] everything we’ve polled for the last six months, Democrats have been doing worse than they did the last time around,” said Jensen. “So even though being down by 7 in this district doesn’t sound great, when you think about the fact that it’s six points better than Democrats did in [2020,] that’s notable being it’s not something we’ve been seeing.”
When the topic of abortion was brought up in the surveys, the numbers changed even further. Jensen said Public Policy Polling conducted “informed ballot polling,” which discusses the candidates’ stances on issues, with the voters of Pennsylvania’s District 1.
“We walked people through the fact that the Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick wants to restrict abortion,” he said, “even if the woman’s life is in danger, even in most cases of rape and incest – just some basic stuff about his record on this issue. And then we asked people again who they would vote for.
“He went from up by 7 against his Democratic opponent to down by 10,” said Jensen. “A 17-point shift, just because of his position on abortion in this political climate where abortion is such a high-profile issue.”
It’s too early to tell whether North Carolina or the rest of the nation would reflect those same swings. Jensen also acknowledged the likelihood that the public’s attention on the issue may fade by November. But he said if Democratic leaders and abortion access advocates continue with messaging, it may make a dent in the forecast of substantial Republican wins in the midterms.
“It’s four months to the election and a lot can happen,” Jensen said. “But it definitely shows some potential for this to be an issue that up-ends the direction that we thought we were going in.”
More details on Public Policy Polling’s surveying process can be found on the company’s website.
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