North Carolina Readying for 2020 Senate Race

When Senator Thom Tillis ran against Kay Hagan in 2014, it became the most expensive Congressional race at the time. The two candidates combined spending topped $100 million, according to the Center of Responsive Politics.

With Tillis up for re-election next year, there’s a chance the costs could be that high again. Public Policy Polling says the Republican holds a 31 percent approval rating, which indicates the race for his seat could be an uphill battle. A crowded field of Democrats likely awaits him too. A handful of figures have already announced their candidacy, but there is speculation that prominent state figures like Attorney General Josh Stein and state senator Jeff Jackson might be recruited join the race.

North Carolina has seen similar political polarization like the rest of the country in recent years. Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, says because of the divisive climate, most voters probably won’t split their tickets.

“That’s very different from what we’ve historically had in NC where tons of people voted for a mix of Democrats and Republicans,” Jensen says, “but in the time of Trump and this polarized climate, you’re pretty much falling in line one way or the other.”

Jensen says the state’s recent judicial elections are good indicators of this trend.

“Those are races where voters really don’t know anything about the individual candidates,” he says, “so they are pretty much just voting along party lines. And in 2016, Republicans pretty much won all those 51 to 49 percent, every single time. In 2018, [it was] a huge year for Democrats and they swept those statewide judicial races.”

With voters turning in straight ballots, Jensen says it’s likely the 2020 senate race will mirror how the voters lean in the presidential election.

“No matter who Democrats end up putting forth,” he says, “that person is likely going to have their performance track very closely to the Democrat does for president.”