During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, some people thought there could be a baby boom, however, it could actually be the opposite. Preliminary data from the Carolina Demography Center shows there is evidence of a baby bust during the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Carolina Demography Center, births in 2020 declined 3.8 percent from 2019. This is below the expected rate based on birth trends prior to the pandemic.
North Carolina also followed this trend, seeing its birth rates decline during 2020. Rebecca Tippett, the director of the Carolina Demography Center, said there were about 3,600 fewer births in North Carolina last year – a 3.1 percent decline from 2019. She said some of the early signs of a baby bust came during the last months of 2020.
“What we really saw was November and December had some of the larger declines in births year over year which suggest a pandemic impact,” Tippett said. “We’re still waiting for some of the data from early 2021 to really begin to get a fuller picture of what happened with births in North Carolina.”
Baby busts are often common during economic crises. Tippett said one more recent example was in 2008 and 2009.
“Following the Great Recession we had a sharp decline in the number of births in the state,” said Tippett. “Those birth rates stayed very low for a few years and then have recently kind of pulled back up but then are starting to take a hit again because of the pandemic.”
According to Tippett this could be a sign of a larger trend. She said families are having fewer children overall – which means the dip in birth rates during the pandemic could have an even greater impact.
Tippet said the birth of pandemic babies could follow a similar trend of babies born after the 2008 financial crisis. Some results seen then included smaller classrooms in schools, which led to fewer required resources and could also mean the potential for less competition entering first-year programs in college.
Tippett said while a one-year change in birth rates may not have a major impact, several challenges could arise if the trend continues.
“I think the real question here is was the pandemic short-term enough that people merely postponed having children or is this just overall going to decrease the number of children individuals have,” Tippett said. “Those will have different long-term consequences into education and employment.”
As more pandemic-conceived children are born, Tippett said the Carolina Demography Center will continue to update its data to determine what impact COVID-19 may have on births across the state and country.
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