A renowned economist recently shared optimistic projections for the economic future of Orange County, the Triangle, North Carolina, and the United States with local employers and community members.

N.C. State University distinguished professor and extension economist Michael Walden was the featured speaker in the second installment of the Chamber for a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro’s 2021 Critical Issues Series. The chamber hosted the remote Economic Outlook Forum last Thursday, March 25, and divided the program into two main segments.

In the first portion, Walden presented his analysis and forecasts for the national, state, regional, and local economy. Chamber president and CEO Aaron Nelson followed in the second segment by detailing the makeup and mechanics of the area’s regional economy.

Walden explained the key to economic recovery lies within raising consumer and business confidence by getting more people vaccinated. He said between states beginning to relax restrictions and people becoming more confident to go back to work or go out and spend money, he expects to see a major economic boost over the coming months.

“I think we’ll see a major boost in the state economy and local economies of North Carolina certainly in the spring and summer,” Walden said during a conversation with 97.9 The Hill’s Brighton McConnell. “And actually in terms of our overall economic activity, the state will be back to pre-pandemic levels in the fall.”

Walden also mentioned how the latest rollout of federal economic impact payments distributed earlier this month is likely to drive up consumer spending and provide an additional boost to the economy this spring.

“I think we’ll start seeing that in the economy in the spring, and hopefully that will tide us over until we get the economy back to full strength,” Walden said. “So it’s really a race for the federal help to keep us above water until we get most people vaccinated and therefore we get an economy that can stand on its own.”

Once that point arrives, Walden said he is optimistic of the opportunity waiting for the already-growing economies of the Triangle. Because North Carolina has been among the top third of states for death rates and job loss per capita, Walden expects this will attract people and business to the state as the country emerges on the other side of the pandemic.

“I’m very optimistic about this area [the Triangle], including Chapel Hill, for future economic growth,” he said.

In addition to North Carolina’s response the virus creating possibility for post-pandemic economic growth in the state, Nelson shared why he expects the Orange County community to make a particularly quick recovery. Nelson said the regional economy’s dependence on UNC, UNC Health, tourism and residential development has left the community healthier than many others.

“We’ve got all the right attributes to help us weather negative economic impact pretty well,” Nelson said. “We saw in previous recessions we were late in and first out and we’re already seeing some positive indications on unemployment and retail sales, with a lot of that due to the fact that our major employers continue to pay wages even through the pandemic.”

The 2021 Critical Issues Series will include eight more forums and continue to feature influential guest speakers to address topics for the Chapel Hill and Carrboro area regarding the economy, economic development, public policy, and elections. More information about the series can be found on the Chamber’s website.

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