The stage is set for North Carolina to be home for one of the most competitive and most expensive gubernatorial races in the country in November.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Roy Cooper outpaced the incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory in fundraising in the second quarter of 2016.
The numbers were released by each campaign on Tuesday with Cooper bringing in $5.12 million compared to $3.2 for McCrory’s camp. That adds to the lead Cooper grabbed in first-quarter fundraising and brings Cooper’s cash-on-hand amount to $9.4 million, while McCrory has $6.3 in the bank.
Cooper’s campaign said the second-quarter fundraising was thanks to “strong grassroots enthusiasm for Roy Cooper for governor.” Meanwhile, the McCrory campaign said in a statement that Cooper was able to raise that much money because he “hasn’t been doing his job as attorney general.”
Meredith College Political Science professor David McLennan says the second quarter numbers could show “something going on that may be affecting Governor McCrory’s fundraising total.”
You could probably guess what McLennan says that “something” may be.
“I do think HB2 may have affected his fundraising totals,” McLennan said.
House Bill 2 was passed in a one-day special session in late March and requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom that corresponds with their birth certificate rather than their gender identity. The bill also restricted localities from passing nondiscrimination policies that extend beyond the state’s policy.
“[The second fundraising quarter] was when all of the controversy – both statewide and nationally – was happening,” McLennan added. “And [McCrory] is the face of HB2. Even though he may not have initiated it, he became the person that was most identified with it.”
McLennan said Cooper’s numbers “could also be reflecting some HB2 impact” because Cooper quickly came out in opposition to the law.
But Cooper has been outpacing McCrory since 2015, which McLennan said is “kind of unusual for an incumbent governor.”
McLennan added that historically Democrats have had better luck fundraising than their Republican counterparts in the Tar Heel state. But he said there was one caveat to Cooper’s lead.
“Because so much fundraising today is done by outside groups, even though the governor may be at a deficit in terms of his fundraising totals and cash on hand, he’s getting pretty strong support from the Republican Governor’s Association and some other outside groups,” McLennan said. “That’s going to kind of balance a little bit of his fundraising deficit.”
McLennan said he sees parallels with the expected spending in this race and the 2014 Senate race in North Carolina that was the most expensive Senate competition in history.
While cash on hand is “pretty high” right now, McLennan said, it will be important to keep an eye on expenditures going forward.
“The Cooper campaign in particular has started advertising,” McLennan said. “Some outside groups have started advertising for Governor McCrory.”
McLennan said he anticipates spending ramping up in late August and early September.
“The person doesn’t win the race by having the most money in the bank,” McLennan said. “It’s choosing how to spend their money.”
Recent surveys have shown North Carolinians evenly divided in support for the gubernatorial race and that is not expected to change before Election Day.
Comments on Chapelboro are moderated according to our Community Guidelines