Donald Trump has a 10 point lead in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, which will take place next Tuesday. Trump has 30 to 35 percent of the projected vote.

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling said Ted Cruz is in second place with 20 to 25 percent, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio in the 10 to 15 percent range.

“In North Carolina, if voters want to stop Trump, Cruz is going to be their top alternative,” he said. “So the question as we head into Tuesday is will the Rubio and Kasich voters be willing to vote for Cruz to stop Trump since their candidates don’t have a chance of winning this state or are they going to stick with their top choice?”

He said if they did stick with their top choice, the vote should be divided enough to pave the way for a Trump victory.

While Trump has a commanding lead in Rubio’s home state of Florida, Ohio remains up for grabs as Trump has just a three-point lead over Kasich.

“If you’re Ted Cruz, you’re really rooting for Kasich to lose Ohio, you’re really rooting for Rubio to lose Florida,” Jensen said. “And hope that if they both lose their home state after Cruz did quite well in his home state, they then both drop out and you finally get that head-to-head race.”

On the democratic side, Jensen said despite a surprising Bernie Sanders win in Michigan, he still expects Hillary Clinton to be the nominee.

“I don’t think it’s possible for Bernie Sanders to win the nomination,” he said. “But certainly his victory in Michigan I think gives him rationale to continue his campaign and at least sort of keep the conversation going.”

Clinton is expected to bounce back from the Michigan loss with a strong showing in Florida and North Carolina.

“You think about North Carolina specifically and how our neighbors voted,” Jensen said. “Hillary Clinton won Virginia to our north by 30, she won South Carolina to our south by 50, she won Tennessee to our west by 30. I’m pretty sure Hillary is going to win North Carolina by something in the 25 to 30 point range.”

Jensen said even though Clinton has a commanding lead in polls coming out of Illinois and Ohio, Sanders’ performance in Michigan shows he has the potential to make it close than expected.

Early voting in North Carolina ends March 12 at 1:00 p.m. Election day is Tuesday, March 15.

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