The No. 8 seed UNC women’s basketball team will face No. 9 seed Michigan State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday morning in Columbia, S.C. The Spartans come in with a 22-8 overall record and 12-6 mark in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
If you aren’t familiar with Michigan State’s body of work, here’s a quick rundown:
Head coach: Robyn Fralick. Fralick is in her first season at Michigan State after successful stints at Division 2 Ashland University (where she went 37-0 and won a national championship in 2017) and Bowling Green in the MAC. Fralick has propelled MSU to its most wins in a single season since 2015-16.
What’s the history? UNC holds a 4-1 lead in the all-time series against the Spartans, though this will be the first meeting of the Courtney Banghart era. The most recent meeting came in the second round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament, when Carolina earned a 62-53 win in Carmichael Arena.
Player to watch: DeeDee Hagemann. The spark for one of the nation’s best offenses, Hagemann is MSU’s top assistor (5.1 per game) and third-leading scorer (12.4 points per game). Though Hagemann has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately, her distribution has never wavered. She dished out six in the Spartans’ Big Ten Tournament loss to Nebraska and totaled a season-high 11 in a win against Purdue in February. This was less than two weeks after Hagemann totaled 10 assists and 19 points in a loss at Indiana. Hagemann is also as efficient as any guard in the country, with a nearly 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. And while she doesn’t carry the heaviest scoring load for the Spartans, it’s certainly in her bag: Hagemann shoots 41.4 percent on threes.
Stats: Michigan State can score with the best of them. The Spartans’ 83.7 points per game ranks sixth in Division 1, but the fun doesn’t stop there. MSU ranks in the nation’s top 10 in overall field goal percentage (48.4 percent), two-point percentage (55.5 percent), threes made per game (9.2) and assists per game (19). The Spartans’ three-point percentage of 37.3 percent ranks 12th. Carolina, meanwhile, is allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7 percent this season. Something’s gotta give.
But for all its prowess scoring the ball, Michigan State is a below-average rebounding team. The Spartans grab only 34.3 rebounds per game, which ranks 275th in the country. Their 9.1 offensive rebounds per game ranks 317th. Carolina has been solid, if not spectacular, on the boards this season with 38.7 rebounds per game (87th). For a team which has struggled to shoot the ball this season, crashing the glass with Maria Gakdeng and Alyssa Ustby could be key.
Michigan State engages in thievery on a nightly basis. The Spartans force 18 turnovers per game, nine of which come from steals. Eight of MSU’s top nine rotation players average at least a steal per game. Carolina has turned the ball over 44 times in its last three games, including 19 times in the regular-season finale against Duke. UNC must take care of the ball and not give the high-powered Spartan offense fast-break opportunities.
Close calls: Michigan State’s 22 wins are impressive enough, but it could have been more. The Spartans suffered three close losses at the hands of the Big Ten’s elite teams: 76-73 at Iowa (on a Caitlin Clark buzzer-beater no less), 70-65 at Ohio State and 94-91 at Indiana. The Hawkeyes, Buckeyes and Hoosiers are each top 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament field. Their offense will allow the Spartans to play with any team in the country, and they would love nothing more than a shot at undefeated South Carolina in the second round.
What are the odds? As of Wednesday, Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite over the Tar Heels. Carolina’s last win as an underdog came when it beat NC State on February 22. The Wolfpack had been favored by 4.5 points.
For information on how to watch Friday’s game, click here.
Featured image via Michigan State Athletics
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