Carolina has what could be termed a 3-4-5 game schedule.
Perhaps the easiest way to determine if the Tar Heels can get to at least 9 wins this fall, which considering a far tougher schedule than a year ago would be as good as 11-1, is to divide the season into 3, 4 and 5-game segments from start to finish.
The first three are non-conference games against Georgia, Illinois and James Madison. Losing to the Bulldogs Saturday night in Atlanta and then winning at Illinois and the home opener against JMU is the worst that segment can be if a big season is in store. Upsetting the Bulldogs would be, obviously, a brilliant start.
The next four games will, in all likelihood, make or break Carolina’s season. Home against Pitt and Virginia Tech and trips to Florida State and Miami represent one wicked stretch. Going 2-2 is the worst that can be if the Heels are to stay on track. Obviously, 3-1 would be better. Then come the last five games, which provide an opportunity to steamroll to another Coastal Division title and play for the ACC championship again.
Those five are at Virginia, home to Georgia Tech, at Duke and back home to finish with The Citadel and N.C. State. If Larry Fedora’ fifth UNC team is as good as advertised, it should go 5-0 or at least 4-1, losing only to Georgia Tech. But that game is in Kenan and like several other teams in the ACC the Tar Heels have their bye week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets’ triple option.
So in those three segments, going 2-1, 2-2 and 5-0 gets you to 9-3 and perhaps the Coastal crown with a 6-2 record. Even going 2-1, 2-2 and 4-1 would finish the regular season at 8-4 and in contention for the division. It is easy to see how the season could spike even better than that by beating Georgia, going 3-1 in the middle 4 games and running the table for a second straight 11-1 record and almost assuredly another trip to Charlotte to play for the ACC title.
It could also go the other way, by losing to Georgia, going 1-3 in the next four games and losing to Georgia Teach to finish 7-5. That would be a real downer after how hyped we are all to get it started.
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