Chansky’s Notebook: Part 2 — Get On The Back Boards!

How Roy Williams can even his UNC record at Cameron Indoor.

Thanks to four straight wins during Tyler Hansbrough’s career, Williams enters tonight’s game with a 6-7 record at Duke during his tenure as the Tar Heels’ head coach. The Heels also won at Cameron a year ago and to end the 2012 regular season, plus they have lost several games that went down to the last possession.

For Carolina to square ol’ Roy’s record in that overrated barn, his guys have to demonstrate they are the best rebounding team in college basketball, especially on the offensive glass. That is how Dean Smith upset undefeated and top-ranked Duke at Cameron in 1989, imploring J.R. Reid and Scott Williams to get on the boards.

Duke can only win by exceeding its average of eight three-pointers a game. Even if the Blue Devils match their 37 percent shooting from the arc this season, they have to make more than eight to offset the extra possessions UNC will get on the offensive backboards. It is simple math, and Carolina will hit a few from outside, making it more difficult for Duke to keep pace.

Dribble penetration is also a key to the game; the Tar Heels must aggressively take the ball to the hole against a suspect Duke defense and get to the foul line. Carolina has defended dribble drive teams poorly the last few weeks, but it should be able to contain tonight’s opponent that plays mostly without a true point guard.

Yes, Duke will drive and dish to spot-up three-point shooters, making it imperative for the Heels to close out against the outside shot. That means really busting it to fight through screens and being able to put a hand up against the long royal blue bombers.

Frankly, I don’t see Duke winning unless Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard and Jayson Tatum all shoot high percentages and somehow the Blue Devils hold their own on the backboard. Carolina won’t be intimidated after winning in Cameron last season and blowing a big lead there two years ago.

Duke could keep it close and steal it at the end, but I think the Heels have too much size and slashing power not to get a lead and hold it. I like their chances to even Roy’s score.