The Civitas Institute is a conservative publication which conducted the poll July 28 and 29. Of the 600 registered voters polled in North Carolina, Civitas President Francis De Luca says, at this time, if Senator Hagan and Speaker Tillis went head-to-head, the Republican would win with a tight margin.
“Today we have Tillis up 45-43,” De Luca says. “That is within our margin of error for the poll. It’s a narrow Tillis lead.”
In June, Civitas polled Senator Hagan with a four-point lead; in May, Speaker Tillis was up five points.
Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that three official write-in candidates have met the qualifications to appear on the November ballot. While De Luca says smaller names may get a few votes in their home towns when the election rolls around, but right now, with a third, bigger name—Libertarian Sean Haugh—thrown into the mix, the outcome shifts.
“We have Hagan at 41 percent, Tillis at 39 percent, and Haugh, the Libertarian, at seven percent,” De Luca says. “So, Hagan has about a two-point lead. Again, that is all within the margin of error. Our margin of error on this poll is plus-or-minus four percent.”
In both the two-way and three-way polls, Civitas has just more than ten percent of the voters undecided with less than three months until the mid-term.
Left-leaning Public Policy Polling’s most recent voter survey had Hagan up seven points in the three-way race with Libertarian Haugh receiving eight percent.
5/13: PPP: Hagan, Tillis a Toss-up, With Third-Party Spoiler
6/17: PPP Poll: Hagan Leads Tillis 39-34
7/23: PPP Poll: Hagan Now Up 7 in NC Senate Race