Thursday night, the NBA Draft will mark the start of a new beginning for 60 aspiring professional basketball players.

While a couple of them have a strong shot to become All-Stars in the near future, many more are better suited to filling a role for their team–such is life when only 15 players can be on a roster and established stars can rule over the league for a decade at a time.

During his 13-year tenure as head coach at UNC, the most tired criticism Roy Williams has received is that he doesn’t produce many All-Stars.

In a way, that’s true because LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry weren’t Tar Heels.

Roy Williams (right) has often been unfairly criticized for not producing enough NBA All-Stars. (Todd Melet)

Roy Williams (right) has often been unfairly criticized for not producing enough NBA All-Stars. (Todd Melet)

However, those critics miss the point because the same guys tend to fill the All-Star roster every year regardless of what new talent breaks out–or where those young players went to college.

Over the last three NBA Drafts, no player selected–not from Kentucky, not from Duke, not from anywhere–has made it to the All-Star Game just yet.

In Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige, though, Williams is sending a pair of four-year college players who appear ready to contribute in some form no matter where they end up.

This preview will try to project where these two best friends will be drafted–and why–while also laying out a best-case scenario for each.


PF Brice Johnson: 6’10” 208 lbs

After conditioning drills during his first practice in Chapel Hill pushed the Orangeburg, South Carolina native to the brink of quitting–Johnson went on to improve his production steadily during his four seasons at UNC.

Brice Johnson showed off a much-improved offensive game on his way to being named a First Team All-American. (Todd Melet)

Brice Johnson showed off a much-improved offensive game on his way to being named a First Team All-American. (Todd Melet)

Having been a human punching bag for Williams thanks to his inconsistent play as a youngster, Johnson grew into the Tar Heels’ most dominant force by his senior year.

He earned himself a First-Team All-American honor by averaging 17 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, all while taking his intensity to a new level–constantly letting out his trademark screams after big dunks and blocks.

Offensively, he showed off a much more polished game as well.

No longer does he rely on put-back dunks and easy finishes around the rim for the bulk of his scoring.

Instead, he’s developing a solid hook shot and a mid-range jumper that will be critical for spacing the floor in a league that’s fallen in love with outside shooting.

“I’ve been trying to show everybody that I can be able to step out there and shoot the ball,” Johnson said after working out with the Indiana Pacers last week. “There’s a couple teams in the league that run up and down just like we did in college. If I’m able to get on one of those teams, it’ll probably help me out the most.”

Although he will likely need to gain weight to deal with the physicality of the NBA, Johnson possesses many of the tools–and all of the athleticism–needed to play “small-ball” for an up-tempo team that likes to push the pace much like the Tar Heels.

Projections: 

DraftExpress.com– First Round, 30th overall, to the Golden State Warriors

NBADraft.net– First Round, 25th overall, to the Los Angeles Clippers

Avery Trendel– First Round, 20th overall, to the Indiana Pacers

Explanation: 

Golden State struggled to find anyone who could match up with Cleveland’s Tristan Thompson–a player with similar size and athleticism as Johnson–in the NBA Finals as Thompson wreaked havoc on the glass and on alley-oop slams.

Johnson's best asset in the NBA will still be his explosiveness around the rim. (Todd Melet)

Johnson’s best asset in the NBA will still be his explosiveness around the rim. (Todd Melet)

The Clippers were forced to play without Blake Griffin, their do-it-all power forward, for much of the season so Johnson could be used as injury insurance.

Los Angeles’ other starter in the post, DeAndre Jordan, also offers little help in “small ball” situations thanks to his awful shooting from the outside and at the free throw line–meaning Johnson could slide into that role when teams try their “Hack-a-Jordan” strategy, thanks to his nearly 80 percent clip at the charity stripe.

Indiana boasts one of the NBA’s best all-around players in 6-foot-10 small forward Paul George, and one of the better young players in versatile second-year center Myles Turner. Adding Johnson to the group would give new head coach (and NC State graduate) Nate McMillan three players of similar size and versatility to mix-and-match as he pleases without ever having to use a traditional, plodding big man.

With many analysts believing the route to a championship is easier through the Eastern Conference, heading to the Pacers may actually be Johnson’s best bet to make it back to another championship final–despite the star power on some of the Western Conference’s elite squads.


PG Marcus Paige: 6’1″ 164 lbs

One of the most interesting case studies in the draft this year, Paige has proven to fans in Chapel Hill over the last four years that he is one of the toughest, most resilient players to ever play at UNC.

Despite his extremely small frame, he worked for two seasons to become one of the best–if not the best–point guards in the ACC.

A Second-Team All-American as a sophomore, it seemed to be a given that the honors would continue to flow in for Paige as his career continued.

Marcus Paige became one of the most beloved players to ever come through Chapel Hill--even before his incredible heroics in April's National Championship Game loss to Villanova. (Todd Melet)

Marcus Paige became one of the most beloved players to ever come through Chapel Hill–even before his incredible heroics in April’s National Championship Game loss to Villanova. (Todd Melet)

Unfortunately, a bout with plantar fasciitis caused his numbers to drop off as a junior.

Then offseason knee surgery and a broken right hand at the beginning of last season saw him enter a dreadful shooting slump spanning nearly the entire year.

During that period, young Joel Berry II took over the offense–forcing Paige to become a severely undersized shooting guard.

Still, though, Paige stepped his game up when it mattered most.

He rediscovered his form–and then some–during the Tar Heels’ run to the National Championship Game, even hitting one of the most memorable shots in program history prior to Villanova’s game-winner just four seconds later.

In the NBA, however, Paige understands that he’ll have to play to his size and revert back to his old role.

“At Carolina I had to play a lot off the ball, which is not my game, not my strength,” Paige said after a workout with the Charlotte Hornets last week.

“At the next level I’m going to be a point guard. So I need to show them how I can play in the pick-and-roll, how I can set up guys and attack the basket from the top.”

A three-time Academic All-American in college, Paige has proven to teams he possesses the basketball IQ and leadership abilities needed to run the point.

He also had some of the better shooting and quickness measurements at the NBA Combine.

Now, it’s about showing those same scouts that his size and injury history won’t hold him back in the long run.

Projections:

DraftExpress.com– Undrafted

NBADraft.net– Undrafted

Avery Trendel– Second Round, 55th overall, to the Brooklyn Nets

Explanation:

Although Paige said he believes he’ll be selected early in the second round based on feedback teams have given him, it really could be his best case scenario to go undrafted.

Paige's draft position may not be where he wants it to be, but he will have ample opportunity this summer to prove his worth. (Todd Melet)

Paige’s draft position may not be where he wants it to be, but he will have ample opportunity this summer to prove his worth. (Todd Melet)

If he’s not among the 60 players taken on Thursday, Paige will be free to sign with any team he pleases and could then choose based on where he feels he would fit in best.

Players taken in the second round aren’t guaranteed contracts like their colleagues who are selected in the first round, so it also wouldn’t be much of a financial burden either should Paige slip out of the draft.

However, I have him being selected late in the night by the Nets–who only have aging veteran Jarrett Jack and 2014 second-round pick Markel Brown at the point guard spot.

Paige has consulted with many former Tar Heels about what to expect in the league, but in Brooklyn he’d also get the chance to learn first-hand from Wayne Ellington, a key member of UNC’s 2009 national championship team.