On paper, the Tar Heels will still be playing on Sunday.
The statistics and comparable records make UNC a slight favorite tonight against Wisconsin in their first-round NCAA game. One fact that is often underrated is how the teams have done over the last third of the season, say their last 10 games. The Heels are 6-4, the Badgers 3-7.
But trending opponents can reverse that in the first half of the game. So it comes down to comparisons, and these teams couldn’t play more different styles with one commonality – neither has a big scorer. Their top three scorers combine to average about 11 points.
“We’re bigger around the basket, so most teams don’t shoot as well against us inside,” Roy Williams says. “But we’re not taking teams out of their offenses or turning them over enough. We don’t want to let them do what they want to do, but we haven’t had a lot of success doing that.”
Wisconsin is older and wiser, with 6 of its top 8 players seniors. UNC is younger and seemingly more talented. Carolina likes to run, and Wisconsin would prefer to control tempo if they cannot score in transition. Their comparative scoring and defensive margins are almost a wash. The Tar Heels shoot a little better from the floor, the Badgers are considerably better from the 3-point line.
Traditionally, Wisconsin is one of the best at avoiding turnovers and foul trouble. This season, Carolina is one of the worst in the ACC in giving it away and committing foolish fouls. The Badgers get to the free throw line more often and maker a better percentage than the Tar Heels.
The biggest differential is in rebounding, where Williams’ team is one of the best in the country while Greg Gard’s team is one of the worst in the Big Ten. Rebound margin says it all, +10 compared to -2.
Carolina recovers 40 percent of its missed shots, which accounts for the offensive rebounding differential and the Tar Heels’ higher shooting percentage. But they are far more streaky shooters than Wisconsin. Both teams play and defend hard, but size will matter.
All in all, Carolina’s talent and size differential should be enough to keep playing on Sunday. But against Baylor is a far different story.
Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees. You can support local journalism and our mission to serve the community. Contribute today – every single dollar matters.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Comments on Chapelboro are moderated according to our Community Guidelines