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A Bad Regular Season for ACC Hoops? There’s Still Time to Flip the Script

By David Glenn

Pittsburgh coach Jeff Capel, the likely 2023 Atlantic Coast Conference coach of the year, recently was watching the ACC Network and didn’t like what he saw.

There was a “perception or reality” segment that involved the panelists debating a relevant question: Is the ACC really down this season?

“I never see that on the Big Ten Network,” Capel said. “They are always, always pumping the Big Ten. Always. I think it’s a really good league, but I think ours is, too. I wish the people who represent us would have the respect and pump our league and be positive instead of looking at negative things.”

Obviously, there is a difference between truly independent media and those directly or indirectly compensated by the team or league they cover. (The ACC Network is owned and operated by ESPN, the conference’s primary media partner.) For example, smart people don’t expect complete and total objectivity from GoHeels.com, UNC’s official athletics website, or critical features at TheACC.com, the league’s official site.

At the same time, while lying on purpose for profit has become a significant element of some 21st century American business models (see recent Fox News legal documents), there are plenty of examples in sports media where official or even technically “independent” outlets take an overwhelmingly positive, glass-mostly-full, smiles-everywhere approach to their coverage while stopping well short of intentionally and methodically deceiving their audience.

Maybe that’s all that Capel, one of the more media-friendly and fair-minded ACC coaches in recent memory, is seeking from the ACC Network — celebrate the ACC’s positives (historically, in men’s basketball, they are virtually countless) and minimize its negatives. That seems fair enough, given the nature, depth and multi-billion-dollar nature of the ACC-ESPN relationship.

In the case of the 2022-23 ACC regular season, though, the facts tell the story very clearly, and it’s just not a pretty picture. Arguing the opposite, in this case, simply conflicts with the rear-view mirror evidence, even if you believe (looking forward) that the league is poised for a second straight magical postseason push. Those are two separate issues.

For example, in non-conference home games against current members of the Associated Press Top 25 (all teams listed with their current rankings) this season, the ACC went 0-3.

  • #1 Houston 69, #13 Virginia 61 (in Charlottesville)
  • #5 Purdue 79, Florida State 69 (in Tallahassee)
  • #6 Marquette 79, Notre Dame 64 (in South Bend)

Similarly, in non-conference road games against current members of the AP Top 25, the ACC went 0-1.

  • #15 Indiana 77, North Carolina 65 (in Bloomington)

In neutral-site games against current members of the AP Top 25, the ACC went 3-6.

  • #2 Alabama 103, North Carolina 101 (in four overtimes)
  • #3 Kansas 69, Duke 64
  • #3 Kansas 80, NC State 74
  • #5 Purdue 75, Duke 56
  • #6 Marquette 84, Georgia Tech 60
  • #13 Virginia 86, #7 Baylor 79
  • Duke 71, #19 Xavier 64
  • #16 Miami 76, #20 Providence 64
  • #21 Maryland 88, Miami 70

Thus, the ACC’s collective record in such high-profile non-conference games was 3-10.

While a losing record against the very best competition isn’t unusual, a 3-10 record in such games will weigh on any league’s reputation, whether during subjective fan/media debates or in the more objective analytics/formulas/metrics that are applied in the same manner every year, usually to the benefit and delight of the ACC.

The other most noteworthy victories by ACC teams over non-conference foes this season were by Miami (68-61 over Rutgers), UVa (70-61 over Illinois), Duke (74-62 over Iowa) and Pittsburgh (87-58 at Northwestern). Each of those opponents is expected to make the NCAA Tournament, and all of those victorious ACC teams likely will be there, too.

The next-best non-conference wins by ACC teams are those by bubble teams over bubble teams: UNC 102-86 over College of Charleston (now 28-3), NC State 76-64 over Dayton, Clemson 101-94 (in double OT) over Penn State, and Wake Forest 78-75 at Wisconsin. Virginia Tech has several bubble-type wins (Oklahoma State, Penn State and Dayton), but the Hokies’ resume is compromised by an unusual number of bad losses (e.g., swept by Boston College).

With these key results in mind, here’s a quick but somewhat painful comparison of this year’s ACC, whose current members have won six of the last 13 NCAA championships (almost 50% from a single league!), with some of its usual standards.

Top-4 NCAA Seeds: This category is relevant, in part, because since NCAA Tournament officials started seeding the field in 1979, the national champion has come from among the top four seeds more than 90 percent (39 of 43) of the time.

How often, in the last 44 years, has the ACC failed to produce at least a single top-four seed? Never! (Please see the accompanying chart)

Until now, perhaps. Virginia and Miami project as either #4 or #5 seeds right now, although either or both still could move up or down a line or two; Duke could jump into that range with an ACC title run. Nobody else in the league has a chance. This is the same conference that often has placed four or five teams in the top 16.

AP Top 25 Teams: Although Pittsburgh entered the Associated Press Top 25 this week at #25, UVa and Miami have provided the league’s only consistent presence in those rankings this season. Again, that almost never happens to the ACC.

As an eight-team league, the ACC often had four of its teams (half!) finish in the Top 25. As a nine-team league, it routinely had three or more, and it once had six! (Please see the accompanying chart.)

As a 15-team league, it has averaged between four and five Top 25 teams per year in the final rankings. This season isn’t over yet, obviously, but if the ACC ends up with only two ranked teams, that would rank among its worst performances historically.

NCAA Tournament Bids: Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 (now 68) teams in 1985, the ACC regularly has sent half or more of its teams to the Big Dance. (Please see the accompanying chart.) There have been plenty of years when the ACC advanced two-thirds or even three-quarters of its members to the sport’s ultimate platform. Since becoming a 15-team league, in 2013-14, it has averaged exactly seven bids per season.

This year, of course, the ACC is likely to fall short of that number for the second season in a row. As the calendar turned to March, UVa, Miami and Duke were the ACC’s only NCAA Tournament “locks”; with only four days remaining in the regular season, four other teams (Pitt, NC State, UNC and Clemson) were on or near the proverbial “bubble” in the eyes of most bracketologists, with the Tar Heels and Tigers falling on the wrong side of that line in the latest projections.

In 2017 and 2018, the enlarged ACC set and then matched its all-time record by sending nine teams — 60 percent of its membership! — to the Big Dance. Last year, after another mediocre regular season, the ACC received only five bids, its lowest number as a 15-team entity.

NET Rankings: The NCAA Tournament selection committee uses this as one of its tools to evaluate resumes, select at-large teams and seed its 68-team field.

Entering Tuesday’s games, the ACC had only one team (Duke at #24) in the NET top 25. All of these conferences had more: the Big 12 (6), Big East (4), SEC (4), Big Ten (3), Pac-12 (2) and West Coast (2). UVa (#28) and Miami (#34) were the only other ACC teams in the top 40.

The American Athletic Conference (#1 Houston), Mountain West (#15 San Diego State) and Conference USA (#19 Florida Atlantic) also have at least one team positioned higher than the ACC’s top team in the NET rankings.

KenPom Metrics: Ken Pomeroy, a 1995 Virginia Tech graduate, has 22 seasons of NCAA basketball data available at his website, KenPom.com, which is quoted regularly by college basketball broadcasters and writers.

In many seasons, the ACC has been ranked the top men’s basketball conference in America. In a large majority of seasons, it has been ranked among the top three. This year, it is seventh, behind (in order) the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, Pac-12 and Mountain West.

In this week’s KenPom team rankings, Duke (#33) is the top ACC team, with Miami (#36), UVa (#37) and UNC (#43) close behind. In the previous 21 seasons, the ACC has had at least one team in the final top 10 every year except one (2021), and the league has had multiple teams in the final top 25 every single year. Such streaks obviously are in serious jeopardy right now.

The bottom line: Yes, especially by the ACC’s lofty standards, the 2022-23 regular season was extremely disappointing, several notches below the league’s typical performance level.

It’s OK to write that, or say it out loud, even on the ACC Network, because it’s true.

Looking ahead, remember, that undeniably subpar regular season certainly doesn’t prevent other good or even great things from happening.

Perhaps the ACC Tournament in Greensboro next week will be thrilling and unforgettable. Then, even if the league’s number of NCAA Tournament participants is uncommonly low (like last year), maybe one or more of those representatives will play their best basketball of the season, populate the Sweet 16, make a run at the Final Four or even cut down the nets with a national championship.

That’s looking ahead, though.

Looking back, there’s really no debate. According to virtually every reasonable measuring stick, including the ACC’s own (mostly scintillating) history, it has been another subpar regular season for the league. That’s just the truth, regardless of who likes it… or not.

Next time: ACC Tournament Fun Facts

(featured image via Todd Melet) 


David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com@DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.

The founding editor and long-time owner of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, he also has contributed to the Durham Herald-Sun, ESPN Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Raycom Sports, SiriusXM and most recently The Athletic. From 1999-2020, he also hosted the David Glenn Show, which became the largest sports radio program in the history of the Carolinas, syndicated in more than 300 North Carolina cities and towns, plus parts of South Carolina and Virginia.


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