Finalized NBA Early Entry Decisions Offer Some ACC Clarity for 2022-23
By David Glenn
Apparently, in college basketball, June is the new April.
Once upon a time, in a less complicated world, it wasn’t difficult to make reasonable projections for the following NCAA hoops season within a few weeks of the Final Four. Now, many coaches spend the months of April and May in a state of roster chaos.
There has always been roster turnover, of course, starting with departing seniors (although even that is a bit messy right now), plus at least the possibility of additional complications, such as early NBA entries, occasional medical issues, incoming/outgoing transfers, and some extremely late decision-makers from the high school and junior college ranks.
Now, for a variety of reasons, there are unprecedented numbers of both early NBA candidates and major college transfers. For example, every college hoops player has a two-time “test the waters” option, in which he can work out for and get feedback from NBA teams without jeopardizing his college eligibility. Meanwhile, the NCAA created the transfer “portal” in 2018 and adopted a one-time immediate-eligibility exception (previously, a one-year sit-out period at the new school typically was required) for most transfers in 2021.
Predictably, the NBA and transfer numbers both have soared in recent years, leading to almost unprecedented levels of spring-time roster instability. The NBA’s early entry number was 283 (247 college players, 36 international prospects) before withdrawals this year, and the Division I men’s basketball outgoing transfer total is expected to be similar to last year’s 1,700-plus.
This year, 25 ACC players “tested the waters,” with only seven (please see accompanying chart) withdrawing their names by the NCAA’s June 1 withdrawal deadline. That means 18 ACC players turned pro with eligibility remaining, even though a majority of those won’t be selected in the NBA’s upcoming (June 23) two-round, 30-team draft. Because two franchises had to forfeit their second-round picks, there actually will be only 58 selections this year.
Overall, among potential 2022-23 contenders, UNC, Miami and Virginia have had the smoothest springs. Despite some flirtations, none of the three will lose anyone to early NBA entry. While UNC and UVa had multiple outgoing transfers, those all came from second-team players. In fact, both teams’ best players decided against even going through the test-the-waters process.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest each suffered one or more significant early losses to the NBA, although most of those teams also had at least one key player opt to stay in school.
Click here for a chart breaking down final 2022 NBA Draft early entry decisions among ACC players
UNC Poised To Win Draft/Portal Lotteries?
While Carolina basketball fans have had more than a month to ponder the scintillating possibilities created by the run-it-back decisions of starting players Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, RJ Davis and Leaky Black after their amazing run to the 2022 NCAA championship game, they may not be fully aware of the unusual nature of the Tar Heels’ ongoing array of offseason developments.
From the NBA perspective, consider this: Among the 14 ACC players who were considered possible first-or second-round draft picks this season, 10 turned pro.
A huge number of players projected as possible second-rounders or even undrafted free agents turn pro despite such projections these days, and the Tar Heels dodged that trend, with Bacot and Love (both possible second-rounders) staying in school. The only higher-ranked ACC player who opted against turning pro this season was NC State freshman guard Terquavion Smith.
Meanwhile, although second-year UNC head coach Hubert Davis already has experienced the ups (signing perfect-fit Oklahoma forward Brady Manek last year) and downs (losing Walker Kessler to Auburn last year) of the new-world transfer portal, he’s minimized the outgoing damage so far this spring, and he may have one more special late addition up his sleeve.
(Northwestern senior forward Pete Nance, one of the top-ranked transfers in this year’s portal, withdrew his name from the NBA draft earlier this week. A son of former Clemson star and NBA all-star Larry Nance, Pete is 6-10 and 225 pounds; he averaged about 15 points, seven rebounds and three assists per game last season, while shooting 45 percent from 3-point range.)
While the Tar Heels did lose forward Dawson Garcia (home-state Minnesota), guard Anthony Harris (Rhode Island) and guard Kerwin Walton (deciding soon among Clemson, Kansas State, Memphis, Oklahoma and Texas Tech), Garcia’s decision was tied to his unusual family health situation, and Harris and Walton projected as role players for UNC in 2022-23.
For context, while Carolina lost three second-team players to the portal, a bunch of other ACC teams (i.e., Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech) lost one or more transfers this spring from their starting lineups! That’s never a good sign and often a red flag. Again, the Tar Heels are bucking that trend.
Finally, while it’s easy to remember that the extra “COVID” year of eligibility enabled Black to take advantage of a “super senior” year (fifth season as a full participant) with the Tar Heels, it’s easy to forget that many others in similar situations opted to move on to professional basketball instead, sometimes despite the possibility of a prominent role on a contending team.
The following ACC players were among the most prominent seniors who opted against a potential fifth season: Virginia Tech forward Keve Aluma, Syracuse guard Buddy Boeheim, Georgia Tech point guard Michael Devoe, NC State forward Jericole Hellems, Wake Forest forward Isaiah Mucius, Florida State forward Malik Osborne, Florida State guard Anthony Polite, Syracuse forward Cole Swider and Wake Forest center Dallas Walton.
Once again, the Tar Heels bucked a modern trend, in a way that bodes well for next season.
New Faces Everywhere After Duke Exodus
Duke has known for a full year now that the 2022-23 season would mark a massive transition for its program. After 42 seasons under legendary head coach Mike Krzyzewski, 34-year-old former Duke player and long-time assistant coach Jon Scheyer has moved into the lead chair.
The Blue Devils also have known for months that at least three of their star underclassmen would be leaving school early for the NBA. Freshman forward Paolo Banchero is projected as a top-5 first-round selection, and freshman guard AJ Griffin and sophomore center Mark Williams also could end up as lottery (top-14) picks.
More recently, when junior guard Wendell Moore Jr. and freshman guard Trevor Keels also decided to stay in this year’s draft — Keels said he was on the fence until the very end (June 1) — the Devils truly entered full reboot mode, having lost their head coach and eight of the top nine players from their Final Four team. Forwards Theo John and Bates Jones, both graduate transfers in 2021-22, exhausted their eligibility, and senior guard Joey Baker opted to transfer.
Thus, in a 13-scholarship sport, Duke will have only two returning scholarship players from last season: rising junior point guard Jeremy Roach (a returning starter) and rising sophomore point guard Jaylen Blakes.
Thanks to the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation, of course, the Blue Devils nevertheless are expected to remain an ACC and national contender. Big men Dereck Lively II (7-1) and Kyle Filipowski (6-11) and 6-6 wing forward Dariq Whitehead are three of the five highest-ranked high school seniors entering college basketball next season. Power forward Mark Mitchell and wing guard Jaden Schutt will arrive with plenty of prep accolades and expectations, too.
Meanwhile, in the transfer portal, Duke already has secured a pair of role players in Northwestern center Ryan Young and Harvard forward Kale Catchings, and the Devils remain in contention for several potentially higher-impact guards, including Illinois senior Jacob Grandison (10 ppg, 41% threes) and Texas senior Courtney Ramey (12 ppg, 41% threes in 2020-21). They also were in contention for Northern Iowa senior guard AJ Green (19 ppg, 39% threes), but he announced Wednesday that he’s remaining in the NBA draft.
David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.
The founding editor and long-time owner of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, he also has contributed to the Durham Herald-Sun, ESPN Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Raycom Sports, SiriusXM and most recently The Athletic. From 1999-2020, he also hosted the David Glenn Show, which became the largest sports radio program in the history of the Carolinas, syndicated in more than 300 North Carolina cities and towns, plus parts of South Carolina and Virginia.
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