For Third Time In 4 Years, UNC Living On NCAA Bubble
By David Glenn
For decades, North Carolina basketball fans rarely had to contemplate the patterns and peculiarities of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Now, for the third time in the four-year tenure of UNC head coach Hubert Davis, such things matter a lot.
In 2022, Davis and the Tar Heels offered a clinic on the best possible way to handle late-season bubble status: they stuck together, cultivated a playing rotation that clicked, and won a bunch of big games down the stretch.
Just 16-7 (8-4 ACC) after an ugly 87-67 home loss to Duke on Feb. 5, the Heels were in serious jeopardy of missing the Big Dance in Davis’ first season as their head coach.
Then they won seven of their last eight regular-season games, including difficult road trips to Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State and Duke. Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek, a senior forward who didn’t enter Carolina’s starting lineup until January, played a huge role in pulling together a complicated crew that also included RJ Davis, Caleb Love, Leaky Black and Armando Bacot.
Ultimately, the 2022 Tar Heels made their stunning run to the NCAA championship game as a #8 seed, which is a low number by Carolina’s standards but also reflected the fact that the team’s late-season success had elevated it well above bubble status by Selection Sunday.
In 2023, UNC experienced the more precarious side of life on the bubble.
Entering February that year, the Tar Heels had a similar record (15-6, 7-3 ACC) as in the previous season. Their resume, neither great nor horrible, clearly was that of a bubble team.
That time, though, Carolina’s chemistry never clicked. In particular, in the backcourt, Davis and Love just didn’t seem to make each other better in any way. They were talented individually, and each had special moments, but their combination was fundamentally erratic, and their inefficiencies often weighed down the team.
UNC went just 4-6 in its last 10 regular-season games in 2023. That stretch included a sweep at the hands of highly ranked Duke and key losses at NC State and at Wake Forest, which were fellow bubble teams at the time.
On Selection Sunday, the 2023 Tar Heels were 20-13 and 11-9 in the ACC, numbers very similar to those currently projected for them this season.
Importantly, the 2023 Heels thought they had two quality nonconference wins, against Michigan and Ohio State. However, the Wolverines and Buckeyes later stumbled to the middle and bottom of the Big Ten standings, respectively, meaning UNC had to rely entirely on its ACC schedule for signature victories that year.
(photo via Todd Melet)
Only five ACC teams made the NCAA Tournament in 2023: Duke, Virginia, Miami, Pitt and NC State. That development also minimized the opportunity for resume-builders. The Tar Heels went just 2-7 against those five opponents, including sweeps by the Blue Devils and the Panthers.
In the end, Carolina’s list of accomplishments was simply too thin for the 2023 NCAA Selection Committee. The Tar Heels landed among the “First Four Out,” meaning the teams that came closest to receiving at-large bids without actually receiving them, and UNC then declined an invitation to be a #1 seed in the NIT.
So, where do such measuring sticks leave the 2025 Tar Heels?
Well, after their 73-65 loss at Pitt on Tuesday, this year’s Heels look frighteningly similar to that disappointing 2023 squad.
Their record (13-9, 6-4 ACC) is mediocre. They lost their biggest nonconference games. Their two best victories beyond the ACC (UCLA and Dayton this time) don’t look quite as impressive as they did back in December. There aren’t many conference opponents that present opportunities for impactful wins. Their backcourt players have plenty of individual talent but just don’t seem to mesh well or make each other better.
After the Pitt loss, Hubert Davis was asked how he was going to keep his players together and keep their spirits up.
“Oh, that’s easy. What choice do you have?” Davis said. “I love these kids. I love this team, and it’s a great lesson for this group and this team. It’s a great lesson for life, and I really believe that there is no choice.
“The choice is to get back up and step forward and continue to competitively fight and prepare and continue to improve. I just don’t even think there is a choice.”
With only 10 regular-season games remaining, the Tar Heels have only a handful of chances left to secure the sorts of victories that would elevate them above bubble status prior to the ACC Tournament.
There are, of course, the two games against #2 Duke — in Durham on Saturday night and in Chapel Hill on March 8, in the teams’ regular-season finale. The Tar Heels swept the Blue Devils last season but lost both rivalry games in 2023.
Pitt (Feb. 8 in Chapel Hill) and Clemson (Feb. 10 on the road) also offer opportunities for essential resume-builders over the next two weeks.
In the meantime, Carolina fans — beyond rooting for their own team, of course — may want to consider cheering for several other schools in February and March.
At this point, the Tar Heels’ best wins are over UCLA, SMU and Dayton. According to the latest bracketology projections, the Bruins are firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, but the Mustangs and the Flyers — like the Heels — are regarded as bubble teams.
To be clear, UNC’s only direct route to the NCAA Tournament is to win the ACC Tournament (thus claiming the league’s automatic bid). The Tar Heels’ next-best path would be to post multiple victories over some combination of Duke, Pitt and Clemson, while also avoiding late-season upsets against their lesser opponents.
If they once again end up near that “Last Four In”/”First Four Out” dividing line on Selection Sunday, though, the committee’s perception of those UCLA, SMU and Dayton victories could actually end up making a difference.
When you’re living life on the bubble, remember, every little bit helps.
David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.
Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our newsletter.
What about this resume is on the bubble? Playing a tough schedule is propping up NET a little but they lost every single one of those games and are a Q3 or Q4 loss from zero chance.