In an effort to endear himself to local sports fans, a Syracuse writer wrote about the perceived “underrated” nature of his local college basketball team. In this process, in an effort get page-views, he decided to throw what the kids call “shade” at other notable teams that might be considered “overrated.”
Chris Carlson of Syracuse.com used a methodology created by Chris Carlson to determine that UNC is the second most overrated basketball program in the country behind only Kentucky.
Kentucky coach John Calipari (Photo by Todd Melet)
In an effort to endear myself to local sports fans and get page-views, I am disputing that claim.
As you know, from the words you screamed when you read the headline of this column, UNC has the second best winning percentage of all time in college basketball. Kentucky has the best winning percentage of all time. So, how can UNC and Kentucky, two teams that are statistically more likely to win any game they play than any other program ever, be the two most overrated teams ever? Is it a Final Four thing? Can’t be. Is this a national championship thing? Despite the two best winning percentages, Kentucky and UNC are only second and tied for third for the most NCAA championships?
No. The writer is from Syracuse. He is not from Los Angeles.
Carlson’s methodology is based on the pre-season and final USA Today Coaches Polls. He is only ranking the past decade. By this metric, Kentucky and UNC are the two most overrated programs in college basketball. Basically, it boils down to the fact that Kentucky and UNC typically start seasons with high rankings.
Take the most recent season as an example. UNC started the year at the No. 1 team in the country. They finished the season with a loss in the national championship game. This means the Tar Heels received -1 point, which basically a break-even situation. Syracuse began the season unranked and did not receive a single vote in the coaches poll. But, thanks to a run to the Final Four, they finished No. 10 in the poll making the Orange the most underrated team of the 2015-2016 season.
UNC basketball head coach Roy Williams (Photo via Todd Melet).
But, here is the problem with that. Syracuse finished the regular season 19-14. They had a .500 record in the ACC, tied for 9th in the conference, and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament. The team wasn’t ranked in the final regular season poll. They didn’t receive any votes, either. This is not because they were “underrated.” It’s because they were 19-14. If anything, you could argue that their 4 game winning streak in the NCAA Tournament pushed coaches to overrate the Orange. They beat a 15 seed team in the Round of 32 and an 11 seed team in the Sweet 16. They did beat a 1 seed in the Elite 8…but it was Virginia.
Syracuse was not overrated last year. They were a properly rated team that got hot at the right time and caught great breaks in the tournament.
Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim (Photo by Todd Melet)
This example points out the painfully obvious. Overall records and strength of schedule have to be considered if you are going to take on this kind of project. You should also consider a larger sample size, especially if the two best programs, based on overall winning percentage, end up on top of your “most overrated” list.
Of course, at least he actually tried. I didn’t even attempt to come up with a unique metric to make my point. I didn’t even open Excel. Also, as Carlson notes, his results are “an indication that some of the top programs simply face the impossible expectation of making the Final Four every year. That is their reality.”
He’s not wrong there.
