Throughout the history of the UNC-Duke men’s basketball rivalry the only certainty has been that the game—more often than not–is decided in the final minutes.

Despite jumping out to early leads in each of their last four matchups, the Tar Heels have struggled to close out the Blue Devils during the time in which the outcome is decided—going just 1-3 during that span.

This two-year time frame matters because it encompasses the entirety of the rivalry for juniors like UNC stars Joel Berry and Justin Jackson and Duke’s Grayson Allen.

The Blue Devils have senior forward Amile Jefferson, while the Tar Heels start a pair of seniors in the frontcourt with Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks—however none of those players contributed heavily in the Duke-UNC matchup as freshmen.

Justin Jackson has blossomed into a star for the Tar Heels this season, but he has just a 1-3 record vs. Duke in his college career. (Todd Melet)

Since the current crop of players became a major part of the fold, the script has largely stayed the same. The Tar Heels—using their pronounced advantage in the post—come out with intensity and get themselves ahead on the scoreboard.

Then, as the game wears on, Duke hangs around with its perimeter scoring and then ultimately steals the win.

During his press conference on Tuesday, UNC head coach Roy Williams compared the recent trend to the Patriots’ historic comeback in Super Bowl LI this past weekend.

“One of the most impressive things I’ve ever seen in sports, I watched Sunday,” Williams said. “Tom Brady looked like he was ready to go to the old folks home, then god almighty he turned everything around and he was the best I’ve ever seen.

“But for two and half quarters, [Atlanta] beat him up,” the coach continued. “And I think that’s what [Duke’s] been able to do with us, particularly in 2015 and last year here when we had a nice lead.”

New England’s Bill Belichick became the first NFL head coach to win five Super Bowl titles with his team’s win, while Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is still the only NCAA head coach to win five national championships with at least 64 teams in the bracket.

Nobody should ever doubt the credentials of a Hall-of-Famer like Roy Williams, but Krzyzewski has spent a career putting himself on a pedestal by himself.

The backcourt battle between Joel Berry (left) and Grayson Allen (right) will be another huge key to Thursday’s UNC-Duke matchup. (Todd Melet)

Last season in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils were down to just five healthy players and still rallied to win by one point—even though they had trailed for most of the night–when Berry’s potential game-tying floater was blocked at the buzzer.

Williams unsurprisingly drew controversy after the game for not calling a timeout to set up a better shot.

The year before that, freshman Tyus Jones willed Duke to an overtime win at Cameron in another game UNC seemingly had in the bag.

This season, however, Krzyzewski has taken heat for undergoing back surgery that sidelined him for eight games—during which the nation’s top ranked team in the preseason went 5-3 under interim coach Jeff Capel.

With Krzyzewski back, and the Blue Devils on a three-game winning streak, Jackson gave an opponent’s perspective as to why Duke—like the Patriots—is so tough to close out.

“They just never quit,” Jackson said. “They’re a great team coached by a great coach, obviously. He’s instilled in them ‘Don’t ever quit.’

“Going into this game they have a bunch of great players,” he continued. “They’ve dealt with some injuries over this year and stuff like that, but they seem like they’re starting to click a little bit.”

The most interesting thing about this year’s Duke squad has been all the turmoil its dealt with after entering the season with enough talent to fill two top-25 teams.

Mike Krzyzewski

Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski is back on the sidelines after missing eight games due to back surgery. (Todd Melet)

Top-ranked recruits Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden joined an already loaded group that included players like Allen and ACC Player of the Year candidate Luke Kennard. Injuries to players and coaches alike have kept the Blue Devils from meeting expectations, but the talent is more than enough to match what the Tar Heels can counter with.

UNC will once again likely have an advantage in the post, but Jackson and the rest of the team understand it will take the most complete effort possible in order to come out on top.

“We have to know whenever we go in there it’s gonna be a battle for all 40-plus minutes—however long it takes,” Jackson said. “That’s the mindset we have to have going into that game.”

Historians may note that although the Tar Heels have struggled to close out games in this rivalry over the last couple years, they did, in fact, win the most recent matchup—which also took place at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Berry told media members Tuesday that UNC learned from that victory that it will have to take away Duke’s ability to shoot themselves back into the game from beyond the arc, especially as time wears on.

Williams, on the other hand, was more straight forward—saying exactly what he thought would happen if his team isn’t locked in from start to finish like they were last March.

“If you’re not focused you’re gonna get run out,” Williams told reporters.

“I think that we’ve done that,” he added. “But we haven’t been able to maintain it.”