The North Carolina football team had two weeks to lick its wounds following a blowout 47-20 loss at Miami. The 4-5 Tar Heels will now welcome the Pitt Panthers, a squad with an identical 4-5 record, into Kenan Stadium Saturday for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff that is a must-win situation for postseason eligibility.
In order to “go bowling,” both schools must win two of the final three games on their respective schedules. Pitt will be making its first visit to Chapel Hill since 1998 and will also be in search of its first victory all-time at UNC. The Tar Heels lead the all-time series by a 5-3 margin and snared a thrilling victory last season at Pitt thanks to a pair of Ryan Switzer punt returns for touchdowns.
This year’s matchup pits two explosive offenses against each other, but UNC head coach Larry Fedora and Pitt chief Paul Chryst go about their business in very different ways. Add to that the high stakes nature that comes with a November meeting, and this one is shaping up to be a compelling contest.
Offense
The Tar Heels were rolling earlier in the season, but in the past two games at Virginia and at Miami, Carolina’s prolific attack has been slowed by sloppy mistakes and (it must be said) solid defense by its opponents. UNC’s warp-speed offense runs through the dynamic dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Marquise Williams. Williams, who is second in the ACC in both passing yards and total offense per game, will be anxious to get things back on the right track this weekend and make use of his wide array of playmaking receivers. Coach Fedora says the Tar Heels will need to be efficient with the football, especially against Pitt. I agree.
As for the Panthers, they’ll like their chances on putting up a bundle of points as well. But they’ll do it in a much different manner than the Tar Heels. While Carolina tends to score in quick bursts, Pitt uses a ball-control, ground-and-pound offense to run the clock and force opposing defenses into submission. Pitt’s leading rusher, James Conner, is a beast. Conner, ranked fourth nationally in rushing yards per contest and first in the ACC in rushing touchdowns, tests the manhood of a defense and keeps chains moving for the Panther offense. Uh oh, UNC defense…
EDGE: UNC
Defense
We’ll keep this one short and sweet. Both sets of defenses have struggled to find consistency this season and a lot of that can be attributed to youth. UNC can play stout defense for small patches in games, but the ticking time bomb always seems to go off in the form of giving up the big play. Let’s be honest, the Tar Heels are ranked in the bottom of the FBS in most defensive statistical categories while the Panthers have scratched and clawed their way to a No. 20 ranking in fewest yards allowed nationally. Most notably, Pitt is stingy against the pass, placing seventh in the country in fewest yards allowed through the air.
EDGE: Pitt
Special Teams/Intangibles
UNC has had more issues in this department in 2014 than in years past under Coach Fedora. But the Carolina skipper insists the “game-changing play” is going to happen. If he’s right, T.J. Logan and Switzer are the prime suspects to deliver the goods. But the biggest question mark comes in the kicking game. Can the Tar Heels find any consistency from Nick Weiler or Thomas Moore? It remains to be seen.
Pitt will also like its chances to make something happen Saturday with speed demon Tyler Boyd receiving kicks. This kid can absolutely fly. The Panthers will also be praying their field goal kicker Chris Blewitt doesn’t, well, blow it Saturday in Chapel Hill like he did a couple weeks ago against Duke.
EDGE: PUSH
Prediction
I hope the scoreboard operators are well rested for this one. The Panthers and Tar Heels will find the end zone early and often, partly because their offenses are strong and partly because I don’t really trust either defense to hold up through four quarters. Yes, it’s terribly cliche, but when two teams are similar in talent and motivation, as is the case here, turnovers will usually prove to be the deciding factor.
Notably, Carolina has intercepted at least one pass in seven of its nine games this season and has taken three of them to the house. Yes, I do think Pitt’s star running back Conner will run the UNC defense ragged, find the end zone at least a couple times and likely log another 100+ yards on the ground. However, I think UNC will have cleaned up its act in the bye week, convert with surgical precision on offense and also force a timely turnover or two on defense that will ultimately establish some breathing room in the fourth quarter and give the Tar Heel faithful a happy Homecoming.
UNC 45, Pitt 34
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