No. 1 seed Carolina now knows its opponent for the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 2:45 p.m.: the No. 16 seed Wagner Seahawks. Wagner advanced out of the First Four in Dayton, OH on Tuesday after defeating fellow No. 16 seed Howard 71-68. Wagner led by as many as 17 points before withstanding a late comeback attempt from the Bison.
Here’s a quick rundown of the Seahawks:
Conference: Northeast Conference. Wagner finished in sixth place in the NEC regular-season standings with a 7-9 conference record. But the Seahawks caught lightning in a bottle in the conference tournament, winning three consecutive road games at No. 3 Sacred Heart, No. 1 Central Connecticut State and No. 2 Merrimack (the NEC Tournament is played at the campus site of the higher seed instead of on a neutral floor) to capture the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Tuesday’s win against Howard was Wagner’s fourth in a row, which is the Seahawks’ longest winning streak of the season.
Home city: Staten Island, New York
Head coach: Donald Copeland. Copeland is in his second season as Wagner’s head coach after serving as a graduate assistant there from 2015-17 and as a full assistant coach from 2017-21. Copeland moved to Seton Hall – his alma mater – for the 2021-22 season before returning to Wagner to assume the head coaching role in 2022. It’s his first head coaching job. As a player at Seton Hall from 2002-06, Copeland was named second team All-Big East after his senior season. He went on to play nine years for various teams in Europe and Puerto Rico.
Wagner coach Donald Copeland gestures during the first half of the team’s First Four college basketball game against Howard in the men’s NCAA Tournament on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 in Dayton, Ohio. (Image via Associated Press/Jeff Dean)
What’s the history? UNC and Wagner have never met in men’s basketball.
Player to watch: Melvin Council, Jr. Council was electric in Wagner’s win against Howard, scoring 21 points, grabbing five rebounds and dishing out seven assists while playing all 40 minutes. Council was also efficient, shooting 10-18 from the floor. Much of his damage came from inside the arc: Council made nine two-pointers as opposed to only one three. For the season, Council is Wagner’s leading scorer and rebounder. He has a height advantage over UNC’s starting backcourt of R.J. Davis and Elliot Cadeau, but look for the Tar Heels to harass Council at every opportunity.
Stats to watch: Wagner plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, per KenPom.com. Its average of 61.4 possessions per 40 minutes ranks 361st out of 362 Division 1 teams. Only Virginia played at a slower pace this season. The Seahawks played slightly faster on Tuesday night (66.1 possessions per 40 minutes), but still far slower than UNC has averaged this season (70.5, 41st in Division 1).
Because Wagner plays so slowly, its defense naturally ranks highly in several counting stats. Its points allowed per game (62.3), field goal attempts allowed per game (53.9) and free throw attempts allowed per game (15.8) all rank inside the nation’s top 40. But pace has nothing to do with Wagner’s suffocating three-point defense, which has allowed opponents to shoot just 29.5 percent this season – the eighth-best mark in Division 1. Carolina’s three-point defense is no slouch either: 31.4 percent, good for 53rd. This could be a game played inside the arc.
For all the gaudy defensive numbers, Wagner’s offensive metrics are not great. The Seahawks shoot just 39.6 percent from the field, which ranks 354th – eighth-to-last – in Division 1. Wagner’s two-point percentage of 44 percent ranks even lower: 357th. The Seahawks rank slightly higher on threes (32.6 percent, 261st), but still closer to the bottom than the top. Wagner’s KenPom Offensive Rating (measuring points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent) is 96.1, the worst in the NCAA Tournament field. But none of that affected the Seahawks on Tuesday, as they shot 29-55 overall (52.7 percent) and 8-17 (a season-high 47.1 percent) on threes. It was the team’s first time shooting 50 percent or better in a game since February 1. The most recent result aside, Wagner likes to win ugly.
Run, run, and then run some more: Carolina should look to tire the Seahawks out early. Not only is Wagner coming off a game on Tuesday and a trip from Dayton to Charlotte, the Seahawks only dress seven players. Three of them played 40 minutes against Howard and had to weather a nervy finish in which the Bison had multiple looks to tie the game. If the Tar Heels can control the pace and get up and down the floor, Wagner’s legs might give out on them. Of course, that was the narrative going into the ACC title game against NC State on Saturday, and we all know what happened there.
Just like baseball? Oddly enough, this won’t be the first high-profile matchup between Carolina and Wagner in 2024. The Diamond Heels hosted the Seahawks in the opening series of the 2024 regular season at Boshamer Stadium back in February. UNC rolled, outscoring Wagner 46-14 in three games and sweeping the series.
What are the odds? As of Wednesday morning, Carolina is a 24.5-point favorite in the game. UNC is 25-6 as the betting favorite this season.
For information on how to watch Thursday’s game, click here.
Featured image via Associated Press/Jeff Dean
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