N.C. State, with an 11-17 record, has only two things to play for.

The game against State in Raleigh is an absolute must win for the Tar Heels, who cannot lose to the ACC’s last-place team without sliding off the NCAA tourney bubble. And, still, it’s a dangerous foe.

The Wolfpack is tied with Georgia Tech for the worst record overall and dead last in the league at 4-13. There is always a chance that a team dressed in Carolina blue coming to their house will catch State’s best game of the season. That’s the nature of the rivalry.

On paper, the match-up isn’t close. UNC shoots better from the floor, arc and foul line; has a plus-6 rebounding margin and has more assists when that isn’t exactly a Tar Heel strength. In the KenPom ratings, which I don’t really understand, it is also no contest.

Besides the hated pale blue making State turn, well, red hot, the fate of coach Kevin Keatts is clearly on the line despite his team suffering serious injuries from literally opening night. And the fact that he is the only Wolfpack coach to defeat all three Big Four rivals in their first meeting since 1919 has been lost in the discontent.

Carolina blew out State by 20 points in their first meeting, as the Tar Heels reached the 100 mark for the only time this season. Fear the Pack’s athleticism and quickness would prove problematic went away by halftime when the home team ran up a 56-31 lead.

State does have some special players, no question about it, including two of the top eight scorers in the ACC. One of them is Dereon Seabron, who is also the second-best rebounder in the conference, almost four caroms per game behind Armando Bacot, and the fifth best shooter in the league. Terquavion Smith is also the ACC’s all-around 3-point leader.

So, why exactly has State lost 7 of its last 10 games and put Keatts in the cross hairs of its perpetually disgruntled fan base? Maybe because opponents are keying on Seabron and Smith and daring someone else to beat them. No one really has.

State has two legitimate upsets this season, winning at Virginia Tech and beating Virginia in Raleigh. Its margin of defeat has been narrow only once in the last eight losses, that one by a basket at Pitt.

The Tar Heels have won 7 of the last 8 at PNC Arena.

 

Photo via Todd Melet.

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