How is a game at an FCS school now the turning point of Carolina’s season?

If you look at the match-up against Old Dominion in Norfolk Saturday, you don’t see much more than one of the games Carolina seems to play every year against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent, like Jamison Madison and The Citadel last season, N.C. A&T and Delaware the year before and the likes of Liberty, Middle Tennessee and Elon in Larry Fedora’s tenure as the Tar Heels’ head coach.

The combined score of those eight FCS games, all wins, is 430-132 or an average of 54-17. So why does this game at ODU, the program the Tar Heels decimated 80-20 at Kenan Stadium in 2013, seem to represents the turning point of Fedora’s sixth season here? Well, because it is.

Losing to the Monarchs, in a road game UNC is playing to save money would be the most embarrassing defeat we have suffered in football since Carl Torbush’s second team lost to Furman 28-3 at home in 1999. Even though you can make a solid case that, without defensive lapses, the Heels would be 2-0 instead of 0-2, such a loss would likely portend two more to Duke and Georgia Tech and a 0-5 start.

However, if the Fed Spread keeps improving and finishes enough drives to blow out ODU, the arrow would turn in the other direction, and beating Duke and Tech become serious possibilities along with winning at least six games and receiving a fifth straight bowl bid with Fedora’s least experienced team to date. Carolina coming to Norfolk might be treated as a big deal up there, but losing would be anything but that here.

The Monarchs are a solid FCS program, with a 69-30 record for a .697 winning percentage since resuming the sport in 2009. Still, there is no way they should beat a team of Carolina’s caliber – even if it is a rebuilding year for Fedora. ODU has played solid defense in wins over Albany and UMass to start the season. But after losing its best running back and wide receiver, it is literally hurting on offense and should be meat for a more experienced and athletic UNC defense.

So, my guess is the season’s about to turn in the right direction.

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