Expect a barnburner at the Dean Dome Saturday afternoon.
Sure, Carolina has had N.C. State’s number in the Roy Williams era and, so far, the Hubert Davis tenure.
Ol’ Roy used to talk about State being HIS archrival because he grew up outside of Asheville before the David Thompson days, and that only fired up his already established love for UNC. He went on to have a 33-5 domination of the Wolfpack as head coach of his alma mater. In his first season at the helm, Davis swept State with two easy wins.
But all indications are this isn’t the N.C. State we are used to seeing most seasons. The Pack is 15-4 and 5-3 in the ACC so far. The Tar Heels are 13-6 and also 5-3 in the conference nine-team logjam.
After finishing last (15th) in the league in 2022, this is a turnaround season Kevin Keatts needs to get off and maybe stay off the hot seat. After his team’s magical March, Davis is not on the hot seat but some of his players seem to take turns sitting there due to effort and energy.
As we round the bend toward the NCAA tournament, this is also a “Quad 1” game for both teams. The Quad system is the strength-of schedule metric most used by the selection committee in determining invitations and seeds for at-large entries.
It is a Quad 1 home game if the opponent is NET 1-30 in the rankings, and State comes in at NET 25. It is easily a Quad 1 road game for the Wolfpack, which to date has a 2-3 record against Quad 1 opponents. State has beaten Duke at home and Virginia Tech on the road. UNC is 1-6 in Quad 1s, its overtime win against Ohio State the only thing keeping the Heels from where they were this time a year ago.
Enough of those mind-bending metrics. The game is determined on the floor, where the Wolfpack is very dangerous (i.e., a 15-0 lead over Duke). Guard Terquavion Smith is the ACC’s leading scorer with a 19-point average and the most 3-pointers (57). Virtual unknown Jack Clark is the ACC’s No. 9 rebounder AND second in steals, showing his versatility. And 6-9, 275-pound unorthodox hunk D.J. Burns will be perhaps the most physical test for Armando Bacot this season.
More of a worry is State as the second-best scoring team in the ACC behind Carolina, but No. 6 in scoring defense compared to the Tar Heels’ spot at No. 13. Thus, the Pack leads the league in scoring margin (+11.1) while UNC is middling at +7.16.
So . . . put on your hard hats.
Featured image via Todd Melet
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Art,
You are usually right on target…BUT, Roy graduated in my class, ’72 David Thompson’s State team won the national championship in ’74. Thompson may have been playing Jr High School ball while Roy was growing up, but he sure wasn’t at State, yet. That being said, State, South Carolina, and even Maryland under Lefty, were much more competitive foes while Roy was in school at Chapel Hill, than was Duke.