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Several reasons why Duke beats UNC, and only one is Cooper Flagg.

Let’s get serious about predictions some people are making about the Tar Heels upsetting their archrivals at Cameron Saturday night. Of course, I hope they do but unrealistic to think so.

First and foremost, second-ranked Duke is far better than unranked Carolina, which takes history off the table. I am hoping the Heels play well enough to make it a close game and gain confidence for the home rematch versus Pitt and at Clemson coming up.

The Blue Devils are bigger, deeper and just plain better.

Especially if Jalen Washington doesn’t play or is not going full speed, Duke has the 6-9 Flagg and Khaman Maluach, a 7-2 rim protector who shoots 76 percent from the floor because most of his baskets are dunks off lobs and offensive rebounds.

The Devils have 10 guys who average at least 11 minutes. Flagg plays 32, Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor get 30; all three are projected NBA draft picks, with Flagg and Knueppel joining Maluach as first-round picks. Ian Jackson is UNC’s only likely first-rounder.

Add all that up and the Tar Heels opened at a shocking 22-point underdogs on CBSSports. Today it is 13.5.

The intangibles also favor the home team more than usual.

The Cameron Crazies remember two of the last three visits by the Heels, losses that still sting. The 2022 stunner in Coach K’s last game at Cameron will never be forgotten by either program. And last season’s upset gave the Tar Heels the outright ACC regular season.

Yes, Carolina has played at Kansas, Louisville, Wake Forest and Pitt, losing all four in close games, and squeaked by ACC also-rans Notre Dame and N.C. State in South Bend and Raleigh. The Crazies will be the insane sixth man for 40 minutes.

Statistically, Duke leads the ACC in scoring defense and scoring margin, Carolina is 16th and 8th, respectively. Hubert Davis has been prepping his team to stop Flagg, who has a 40-point game this season but is also a player who can beat you in so many other ways.

The matchups favor Duke decidedly in the front court and on the perimeter. And Jon Scheyer likes to change defenses as Pitt did late Tuesday night, which kept the Tar Heels from getting good outside looks when they needed a three-ball desperately. The Panthers also blocked nine shots, which the Blue Devils could do.

The stakes are even but different. Duke is playing to reclaim the ACC regular season crown over Louisville and secure top seeds in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Carolina is on the NCAA bubble with few Quad 1 games left and a 1-8 record in Q1s coming in.

UNC is 40-47 at Cameron/Duke Indoor Stadium, which is by far the best record of any regular opponent. Tar Heel fans everywhere are very proud of that and should be realistic if it falls to 40-48.

 

Featured image via Associated Press/Jacob Kupferman


Art Chansky is a veteran journalist who has written ten books, including best-sellers “Game Changers,” “Blue Bloods,” and “The Dean’s List.” He has contributed to WCHL for decades, having made his first appearance as a student in 1971. His “Sports Notebook” commentary airs daily on the 97.9 The Hill WCHL and his “Art’s Angle” opinion column runs weekly on Chapelboro.

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