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Both UNC and Virginia are in precarious positions on Saturday.
Carolina is 3-3 in the last six games and has dropped from No. 3 in the country to No. 10. Virginia has lost two of its last three, including a historic blowout at Virginia Tech and on a free fall from the national polls to the NCAA NET rankings.
So how big is their next game at the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville at 4 p.m. on ESPN?
The Tar Heels should win because, man for man, they have a better team and a defense that is capable of shutting down the UVa offense like Pitt and Wake Forest at JPJ and the Hokies did in Blacksburg, the Wahoos second straight game of scoring under 50 points.
The Cavaliers should win because they are playing at home, having beaten UNC there eight straight times over the last 10 years. And they will surely be ready to rebound from their worst loss in the 14-plus-year Tony Bennett era by 34 points at VaTech.
Aside from points scored and points allowed, understandable considering their different speeds of play, their team statistics are pretty close and often off-setting.
Virginia averages scoring 69 points and allowing 61. Carolina scores 83 points a game and gives up 72. They both shoot about the same from the floor and on 3-pointers. The Cavs are 10 points worse from the free throw line but have a decided advantage in the important assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Heels are a plus-9 on the backboards, which is deceiving because their tempo yields more possessions per game than Virginia, thus more shots taken and more rebounds to get.
The Wahoos have better 3-point shooting by their leaders, four guys who play at least 20 minutes and hit 46 percent or higher from the arc. Carolina’s best long-ballers are R.J. Davis and Harrison Ingram (both around 41 percent). But the Tar Heels attempt almost twice the number of free throws and make a higher percentage (75 to 64).
The Heels have projected ACC Player of the year Davis, who leads the league in scoring (21.3) and the ACC’s best rebounder in Armando Bacot (10.3). The Cavaliers do it more by committee with Reece Beekman (13.9) who is dangerous when he gets into the lane and Isaac McNeeley who leads them in 3-pointers launched and still hits 46 percent. Ryan Dunn is also a threat from outside and is the only player on both teams in the first round of the NBA’s mock draft.
The Tar Heels want to play faster and the ‘Hoos more deliberate. But the outcome will depend on defense, and if UNC plays like it did against Duke as opposed to the loss to Clemson three days later (both at home), it will be an accomplishment worthy of first place in the ACC.
Featured image via Todd Melet
Art Chansky is a veteran journalist who has written ten books, including best-sellers “Game Changers,” “Blue Bloods,” and “The Dean’s List.” He has contributed to WCHL for decades, having made his first appearance as a student in 1971. His “Sports Notebook” commentary airs daily on the 97.9 The Hill WCHL and his “Art’s Angle” opinion column runs weekly on Chapelboro.Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our newsletter.
