Hagan's Officially Out, So Speculation Mounts About Burr's Opponent

Now that Kay Hagan has announced she won’t run for the U.S. Senate in 2016, after losing her seat to Republican Thom Tillis last year, Democrats have been left without a clear contender to unseat Richard Burr.

“It’s a setback for the Democratic ticket that Kay Hagan has decided not to run,” said Mac McCorkle, associate professor of practice at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.

Sure, most of us wish we didn’t have to start talking about next year’s elections already. But that’s not a luxury for political strategists.

McCorkle said that Democrats have a problem, now that Hagan has announced she won’t run to reclaim a seat in the U.S. Senate, this time against the senior Republican Senator from North Carolina.

“If Kay Hagan had run, Richard Burr would have clearly been in a competitive race,” said McCorkle, “and that would have helped Roy Cooper running for governor; Hillary Clinton, or whoever runs for president, in the state, making it more competitive.

“So, it’s a hole in the Democratic ticket right now that’s got to be filled.”

Some possible candidates have been mentioned among political watchers, but none match Hagan’s name recognition. Those include ousted UNC President Tom Ross; Sen. Dan Blue, a veteran local legislator representing Wake County; and fourth-term North Carolina Sen. Josh Stein, also representing Wake.

“The timing might not work for Tom Ross,” said McCorkle, “simply because he’s agreed to stay on as UNC system president for a while, and somebody would have to get to work today [to start running].

“My sense is that Josh Stein is pretty well thinking about state attorney general, if and when Roy Cooper formally announces for governor. Dan Blue could be formidable.”

Blue, at least, has run for the Senate before, as McCorkle pointed out. Still, he said he senses that Blue is more comfortable in state politics.

State Treasurer Janet Cowell said she will seek re-election for her job, but McCorkle said she’ll likely feel some pressure now from her party to reconsider. U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Fox is another interesting possibility, he said.

“He might be able to tap into a lot of national connections, which are going to be important to raise the amount of money that’s needed to be competitive,” said McCorkle.

As for Burr, McCorkle predicts that he, like any Democrat who runs for that Senate seat next year, will ride the wave – whatever that turns out to be.

“He’s not Jesse Helms,” said McCorkle. “People don’t love or hate him. They barely know him. So if it’s a good Republican year, Burr will do fine.”