Chansky's Notebook: Looking Finer

Photo via Todd Melet

Suddenly, Carolina can determine its own ACC — and NCAA — fate.

When the basketball schedule came out, the unbalanced slate looked much to UNC’s advantage. Besides the four home-and-home series with Duke, State, Miami and Louisville, the Tar Heels had five single home games and five single road trips that appeared almost ideal.

The five at home were against Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State and Syracuse – all picked in the top half of the ACC and/or with tough home courts Carolina didn’t have to visit. The five road dates were at Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College; all except Clemson supposedly bottom feeders in the ACC.

It has turned out even finer than that. Carolina stands 12-2 and tied for first in the ACC with Duke and Virginia and has a better remaining schedule than either the Blue Devils or Cavaliers. The Heels will be favored to win their remaining four games, starting with tonight against Syracuse and its zone, a defense UNC has basically destroyed with outside shooting all season. The Orange may play better zone than most, but it shouldn’t matter.

Then are trips to Clemson and BC, both on the backside of the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid. The Tigers, at 6-8, have a reasonable chance to make the Big Dance, and Littlejohn can be a tough place to play. But this game doesn’t look nearly as daunting as it once did with Carolina unbeaten on the ACC road.

BC’s biggest win was over then 11th-ranked Florida State in January. That the Eagles took N.C. State to overtime in Raleigh more recently says more about the Wolfpack than it does about Boston College, where Carolina has lost only once under Roy Williams. The Tar Heels’ incentive to control their destiny should offset the hunger of any big underdog left on the schedule.

Then, of course, comes the home rematch against Duke on March 9. Carolina’s 88-72 win in Durham and Zion’s injury have changed the dynamic of the second game dramatically for these reasons.

Duke, which plays at Virginia Tech tonight without Williamson, was a 9-point favorite against Carolina at Cameron – the largest point spread ever when both teams were ranked in the top ten. So the Blue Devils, whose two ACC losses came with starters sidelined, think they would have won in Durham and will be out to prove it at the Smith Center.

But the Heels have heard and read all the chatter and will be more pumped to defeat Duke with Zion, if he is back by then. And sweeping the Blue Devils would mean at least a tie for first in the ACC race and, at worst, a second seed behind UVa in the tournament – maybe good enough for an NCAA No. 1.

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Chansky’s Notebook: Looking Finer

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