The North Carolina Tar Heels Can Still Make The College Football Playoff

UPDATE: A new look at the Tar Heels’ College Football Playoff chances.

The North Carolina Tar Heels kept their College Football Playoff hopes alive after defeating the Virginia Tech Hokies in an overtime thriller on Saturday afternoon.  The win clinched an ACC Coastal Division Championship.

Something bad happened in Columbia.  A couple of great things almost happened in Gainesville and Boston.

But, all in all, the Tar Heels’ chance at the College Football Playoff did not change much over the weekend.  In the new College Football Playoff Rankings, the Tar Heels moved up to No. 14.

Expect plenty of changes this weekend.

Before we get into it, let’s just quickly summarize why the Tar Heels still have a shot at the College Football Playoff.

If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat NC State and Clemson, they will finish 12-1 and will be the ACC Champions.  Of course.

The Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 will likely produce champions with fewer than two losses.  Expect those conference champions to land in the College Football Playoff.  The Pac-12 champion will have at least two losses and maybe even 3.  That’s a big hill to climb back to 1 of 4 spots.  Notre Dame could finish with one loss.  That could spoil the party for one of the five conference champions.

If Clemson wins the ACC Championship, they make the College Football Playoff.  Barring calamity, the SEC and Big 10 champions will also be in.  Flip a coin between the Big 12 champion and Notre Dame (if they don’t lose).

A UNC win over Clemson opens up one spot.  A Notre Dame loss keeps the Fighting Irish from taking it.  Chaos could open up another.

The biggest concern for the Tar Heels would be a glut of one-loss teams that don’t win their conference.  Iowa, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Baylor could all finish with only one loss and no conference championship.  This isn’t about why the Tar Heels should make the College Football Playoff.  It’s about how.  It won’t be easy for the Tar Heels if these teams are just hanging out next Saturday night without a trophy and one loss.

Andrew Flowers at FiveThirtyEight gives the Tar Heels a 39 percent chance at making the College Football Playoff if Carolina wins out.  He writes that teams like Carolina and Michigan, “need a messy highway pileup for them to swerve into the mix.”

So.  Let’s look at the games and find that pileup.

Almost every team with a chance at the College Football Playoff is playing their biggest rival and that includes the Tar Heels.  Let’s go through the list of meaningful games.

The teams that Tar Heels should root for will be in bold font.

Week 13 (Now Updated with Friday and Saturday results)

1 Clemson at South Carolina

You still want Clemson undefeated going into the ACC Championship.  (Clemson is still undefeated).

2 Alabama at Auburn

Most people seem to agree that the SEC, after Alabama, seems weaker than normal (more on that to come).  It sure would be interesting if Auburn pulled off the upset, but don’t get your hopes up.

3 Oklahoma at 11 Oklahoma State

Unless the College Football Playoff committee just really hates the Big 12’s lack of a conference championship, the winner of this game gets in ahead of the Tar Heels.  Let’s give the Sooners a spot. (Oklahoma is probably in.)

4 Iowa at Nebraska

Go Cornhuskers!  Probably won’t happen, but it would be cooler if it did. (But, it didn’t.  Iowa will go into the Big 10 Championship with no losses.  They’re quickly becoming your favorite Big 10 team, Tar Heels).

5 Michigan State vs. Penn State

A Penn State win would be nice. (Didn’t happen.  Michigan State cruised.)

6 Notre Dame at 9 Stanford

Still the biggest game for the Tar Heels outside of the ones Carolina actually plays.  If Stanford wins, Carolina has a legitimate shot.  If Notre Dame wins, I might not even do one of these next week. (The Stanford win kept hope alive.)

7 Baylor at 19 TCU

Baylor can be the Big 12 champion if they beat TCU and Texas.  They would also need Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma.

I don’t think the College Football Playoff committee would squeeze two Big 12 teams in any scenario.  But, just in case, let’s hope TCU wins.  (TCU swam to victory in overtime.  The religious Texas teams are both out, now.)

8 Ohio State at 10 Michigan

This game is at noon, so both teams will play assuming they have a shot at the Big Ten Championship game.  If Michigan State beats Penn State later in the day, the Spartans get that spot.

You really want Michigan to beat Ohio State.  If Michigan State wins the Big Ten East, Ohio State could be a one-loss team without a conference championship game.

That’s not good for the Tar Heels because the College Football Playoff committee would definitely consider sneaking in the Buckeyes. (The Buckeyes won big and that is a big problem for the Tar Heels.)

12 Florida vs. 13 Florida State

Florida almost lost to Florida Atlantic.  Boy, that would’ve been sweet.

Don’t assume that this means that Florida State will roll.  Just hope they do.

Last year, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Clemson all beat their in-state SEC rivals.  That could happen again.

It would help.  (The ACC went 3-1 in these games.  Florida heads to the SEC Championship after dropping one to Florida State and could make things interesting there.)

14 North Carolina at NC State

Don’t make it so hard this time, Tar Heels.

Once again, this is all pointless if the Tar Heels lose.  (The first quarter was awesome for the Tar Heels.  The rest of the game kept Carolina sweating.  But, they did what they had to do.)

Conference Championships

ACC

Clemson vs. North Carolina

This is all pointless if the Tar Heels lose.  Broken record.

Big 10

Michigan State, Ohio State, or Michigan vs. Iowa

This is a dangerous conference for the Tar Heels.  Just hope that everybody besides the champion has more than one loss.  If you want a team to pull for, go with Iowa.

Big 12

No championship game.  But, Baylor will play Texas.  Go Longhorns.

Pac-12

Stanford vs. USC or UCLA

Tar Heels need help from Stanford this week against Notre Dame.  But, after that, you’re done with them.  Pull for one of the Los Angeles teams to ensure that nobody from the Pac-12 finishes with fewer than 3 losses.

SEC

Alabama vs. Florida

It doesn’t really matter who wins here.  The winner almost certainly gets in and the loser is out.  But, if Florida wins after losing to Florida State, that can only help the ACC.

Earlier, I cited FiveThirtyEight.  The website is better at predicting presidential elections than the College Football Playoff.  Last year, their prediction model gave TCU a 91 percent chance at making the College Football Playoff going into selection day.

TCU didn’t make it.

That is a not a criticism of FiveThirtyEight.  It is just important to recognize the chaos that exists in college football and the unpredictable nature of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

There are two more chaotic weeks of football before that committee makes its final decision.

If you are a fan of the Tar Heels, cheer for your team and for chaos.