Photo by Todd Melet
Six reasons why the Tar Heels are at a crossroad.
Twenty-one overall and eight ACC games into the season, Carolina faces some dangerous trends that are supported by statistics and logic, which leaves Roy Williams with the issues he referred to after the loss at Virginia Tech. Here are a few.
Number one, the Heels are shooting more three-pointers per game than last season and more than Williams likes. A year ago, the national champions fired fewer than 20 per game from the arc. This season, they are hoisting up 22 per game and in ACC play has increased to an average of 25; they are also very streaky.
Number two, that obviously means they are shooting fewer two-pointers – 42 per game overall and only 39 per ACC game compared to averaging 46 last season. And they are also making a lower percentage of those closer-in shots than the 2017 Heels.
Number three, Williams has the conundrum of whether to use his developing freshmen or start his five best players in the so-called small lineup of Maye, Pinson, Johnson, Kenny Williams and Berry.
Since Williams went small four games into the conference season, the starters are logging a lot of minutes and have looked tired in recent games especially on defense. Does Ol’ Roy go back to Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks for more minutes and increase his risk of losing but give them more experience for next year when no other big men have been signed so far?
Number four, as Dean Smith used to say, “The other team has coaches, too.” And those ACC coaches are good and have been scouting their opponents all season. With less of an inside scoring threat, Carolina is not going to the foul line as much and its perimeter can be more easily defended, down to shooting collectively about 40 percent.
Number five, the Tar Heels are having trouble both guarding the post and closing out three-point shooters, who are making 37 percent from the arc in ACC games compared the UNC’s 34.6 percent. They may have to give up a few more two-point baskets in order to contain a hot three-point shooting team.
Number six, besides Berry and Maye, the rest of the lineup needs to find better shots and make them, which in turn will keep the leading scorers from trying to do too much.
This is not last year’s team, with fewer pro prospects, but is capable of playing harder and better. Hopefully, Williams finds the right buttons to push.
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My suggestion for what it is worth. Play Maye at the 4 and start Garrison and bring Manly off the bench quickly. Give them bigger minutes. I would rather them have the minutes than Pinson or Williams. That means either Johnson, Pinson or Williams will become your 6th man. Pinson is more suited to that role.
Why does UNC struggle to get good shots while opposing team gets look at 3-ball with no one in “earshot”?