ingram 4Losing Brandon Ingram is a tough blow for Carolina basketball but certainly not a fatal one. That outcome is more in the hands of the NCAA, which has dragged out this investigation for so long that the Tar Heels have already suffered a de facto penalty of losing an entire recruiting year.

What could the NCAA be doing with all the time and material they have had since last summer? The only plausible answer is that the suits in Indianapolis are fighting over what their ruling on UNC will look like for them. Since the Penn State fiasco and the lawsuits that watered down the Miami penalties, the NCAA’s own credibility has been greatly undermined. After all this time, if they merely slapped Carolina on the wrist, the public’s reaction would be strong.

NCAA President Mark Emmert is on the record about the differences in the penalties given to Syracuse after that eight-year investigation and what might be forthcoming for UNC. Syracuse’s violations go right back to the basketball office and coach Jim Boeheim, whose suspension for the first nine ACC games next season and a loss of 12 scholarships, plus other recruiting sanctions, are being appealed. Carolina’s problems stem from an academic department that offered crip classes and easy grades to the general student body, 47 percent of the enrollments under review being athletes. Emmert has also said the NCAA should not be involved in how universities offer and teach their curricula.

Clearly, the NCAA has grown reluctant to penalize programs for violations committed by past teams. Boeheim got nailed, but his players are still eligible for the 2016 NCAA Tournament. In retrospect, self-imposing a post-season ban in 2015 might have been unnecessary for the Orange.

So what is the wait on Carolina? The results will cause a hue and cry from somewhere, but that is only noise that eventually dies down. Are they scouring the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of Roy Williams’ program, which was near the bottom of the ACC in recent years? That’s a formula that is what it is and available on the NCAA website, and the baseline goes up every year for the metric that monitors eligibility and retention of athletes.

But there could be some debate over UNC athletes who left school not in good academic standing and are returning to finish or make up classes. You remember that UConn and UNC-Wilmington were banned from the 2013 NCAA Tournament because their APRs were below the designated levels of that time. Although Marcus Paige is the reigning Academic Athlete of the Year, he is only one on a roster of 13 over the last three years.

Roy1With the folksy Williams given to some hyperbole, there is no question that this season has been the hardest of his life. He has suffered personal losses of close friends and/or their children, helped nurse his wife Wanda through her own medical issues and absolutely bombed out on the recruiting trail he once owned. The speculation on Carolina’s future, certainly not helped by rival coaches and the blogosphere, has cost ol’ Roy his top seven targets, some of whom would not even visit.

He was led to believe that the Notice of Allegations, which would have implicated or cleared Carolina Basketball, was due in mid-April. He apparently told Ingram as much. But it still has not arrived and Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham says only, “The investigation is not complete.” Surely, Williams asked Ingram to wait a couple of more weeks before picking a school, but the kid from Kinston had already fallen for the Duke riches when all along he thought he would wear a different shade of blue.

Ingram’s words were right out of Mike Krzyzewski’s mouth. “Today, I created my own path,” he said after putting on the royal blue cap at a press conference in the Kinston gym. You can just hear Coach K feeding him that line. That is what the old Army captain who has become the brigadier general of his university (and pretty much all of basketball) did in forging his own path at the private school in Durham that answers to no one on anything.

UNC vs Duke 055As long as both teams are playing next season, the Blue Blood rivalry will be as fierce as ever. The Tar Heels return nine of their top 10 players and will have an improved Joel Berry and a fully recovered Theo Pinson (top 20 recruits in their own day) to fill the rotation that opened up for Ingram when J.P. Tokoto left the program.

What happens the following year is a big question for both programs.

As long as Carolina doesn’t get sanctions that will keep the Tar Heels out of the NCAA Tournament, reloading a high profile college basketball program is easier than in football, where it takes most freshmen a year or two to make in-game contributions. Williams has a team capable of winning his third NCAA championship and then loses seniors Paige and Brice Johnson and maybe even sophomore Justin Jackson to the pros. But with the NCAA probe finally behind him, Williams could offer top recruits plenty of playing time, which they all want so they can showcase their skills for the NBA.

Duke signing the No. 1 recruiting class in the country for the second straight year guarantees nothing for next season and beyond. Chase Jeter is no Jahlil Okafor and Ingram will have to prove he can replace Justise Winslow, as will late signee Derryck Thornton vis-a-vis Tyus Jones. The Blue Devils will have two athletic wings in Grayson Allen and freshman Luke Kennard, but you don’t win national championships with those guys leading your team.

Duke, which has been lumped with Kentucky in recruiting one-and-dones, may actually go a season without losing an underclassman to the draft. Carolina has a full, talented, experienced roster returning and, hopefully, freedom at last to start reloading for the 2016-17 season.

So the rivalry is safe for the short run, at least. And the first match-up of 2016 is in Chapel Hill. Ingram will get indoctrinated early.