Art’s Angle: The Numbers Game

If you’re a numbers geek, you should love looking at the comparable statistics between Carolina and Duke, which in case you have just landed from outer space meet tonight in the Smith Center at 9 p.m.

Looking at stats, both team and individual, give most people a migraine; but with these two teams the numbers written all over a wall clear up like they do for John Forbes Nash Jr. in A Beautiful Mind. While the Tar Heels and Blue Devils are within touching distance in almost every statistical category, there are two in which the disparity will likely decide the outcome of Game No. 1.

Guess which ones.

Carolina is way ahead of Duke in almost every rebounding category. Duke is way ahead of Carolina in every outside shooting stat.

The Heels and Devils are almost even in average points scored and average points allowed and average scoring margin against opponents. They are slightly more than a smidgeon apart in field goal and free throw percentage, about equal in blocked shots and assist-turnover ratio. Steals and assists favor Carolina because the Tar Heels apply more full-court pressure than do the Devils and like to pass the ball for baskets rather than driving the ball to the hole.

The gap begins to widen in rebounding, where UNC has a plus-7.4 margin per game compared to Duke’s plus-2.9. Brice Johnson grabs 10 rebounds a game; Marshall Plumlee pulls down 8.4. The difference is Carolina has two more big men, Duke has none with Amile Jefferson still out.

And it is as wide as it can get in three-point shooting. The Tar Heels are 15th (dead last) in the ACC in treys per game (5.4). The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the league with nine per. Duke makes just fewer than 40 percent of its long balls, Carolina slightly better than 31 percent. UNC’s shooting slump of late makes it look a bit worse than it really is.

So, Dr. Nash, what do you see on the big board?

The Tar Heels have to dominate the glass, getting second shots on their end and grabbing some of those long rebounds that Duke often turns into baskets after missing three-pointers.  If Carolina can limit Duke to one shot more often than not and pull down about 10 offensive rebounds of its own, scoring on half of them, the game will come down to this:

The Blue Devils will have to at least match their average of hitting nine three-pointers. If they don’t, they can’t win. If they make 10 or more, they have a helluva shot, literally.

Rebounds for UNC and three balls for Duke. Those are the numbers that jump off the blackboard and the stat sheet. If you want to compare for yourself, click here.