One more round of games before the College Football Playoff is set.

College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff

The 11-1 Tar Heels will ride down to Charlotte to face the undefeated Clemson Tigers for the ACC Championship on Saturday night.  Carolina must upset Clemson to have any shot at making the College Football Playoff.

Thanks to Stanford, the North Carolina Tar Heels still have a real chance.

Also, despite the relatively low ranking of No. 10, let’s make one thing clear.

Beating the undefeated No. 1 team in the nation to win your conference championship is a very big deal.

So, forget about the current College Football Playoff Rankings.  They mean nothing when your team is playing the undefeated No. 1 team in the nation in a conference championship game.

Two of the spots in the College Football Playoff are clearly spoken for:

  • Big 12 Champion Oklahoma is in, even without an actual conference championship game.
  • The winner of the Big 10 championship will definitely get a spot.

Alabama and Clemson will fill the other two spots if they win.  If one or both teams lose, then we have some chaos.

The Tar Heels will need three things to happen:

  1. A North Carolina win over Clemson
  2. A Stanford loss to USC
  3. The College Football Playoff committee’s realization that non-conference champions should not crack the top 4.

Once again, the Carolina victory part is obvious.  From the beginning of this exercise, it was understood that the Tar Heels must finish as 12-1 ACC Champions to have any shot at the College Football Playoff.  That’s how all of this works.

Stanford was Carolina’s best friend last week.  The Cardinal win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish cleared some space for the Tar Heels.  But, it also cleared some space for the Cardinal.  Stanford takes on USC for the Pac-12 Championship on Saturday night.  Despite having two losses, the Stanford Cardinal will be in the mix for the final College Football Playoff spot if they knock off the Trojans for the Pac-12 title.  But, if USC wins, the Pac-12 is out.

It seems like conference championships matter to the College Football Playoff.  The Big 10 Championship game between Michigan State and Iowa will be treated like a national quarterfinal game.  The winner is in and the loser is out.  No doubt.  No problem for the Tar Heels.

But, a Big 10 team that is not in that game could be a problem.

Ohio State is 11-1.  Their lone loss is to Michigan State and that is why the Buckeyes will not get a shot at the Big 10 Championship.  But, because their only loss was a close one to a top team (and because they are Ohio State), the committee may decide to slip them in.

That’s no good for the Tar Heels, obviously.

There’s a fourth thing that would help the Tar Heels.

   4.  Florida beating Alabama

Alabama is expected to roll.  But, if the Gators pull off the upset, then no SEC team will make the College Football Playoff.  This would clear some space, also.

Let’s look at the games.

ACC Championship

1 Clemson vs. 10 North Carolina

Right.

Big 10 Championship

Iowa vs. Michigan State

An Iowa win may weaken the Ohio State chances.  Also, if Iowa loses, they’d be a one-loss team.  They probably wouldn’t sneak in, but let’s leave as little doubt as possible.

Pac-12 Championship

Stanford vs. USC

Go Trojans.  It might be tough for the Tar Heels to leapfrog the Cardinal.

SEC Championship

Alabama vs. Florida

The chaos option.

 

This is still fun.

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