It’s being billed David versus Goliath, but who is David?

Odds makers have installed Carolina as a razor-thin favorite tonight against Gonzaga in the last college basketball game of the season. Trust me, that prediction is on name and experience only. This Tar Heel team cannot beat the Bulldogs the way it played against Oregon on Saturday. I can assure you that a victory is much more likely to be grueling than graceful.

Let’s start with the shooting. In perhaps the most cavernous dome where the Final Four has ever been staged by the greedy-isn’t-the-word-for-it NCAA, the Tar Heels went 8 for 21 from three-point range against the Ducks and shot 37 percent overall, their most inaccurate while winning an NCAA tournament game since 1967 – Dean Smith’s first post-season 50 years ago. Gonzaga, in its first Final Four EVER, went 9 of 19 from the arc while shooting 48 percent in the narrow escape over gritty South Carolina.

Now, let’s go to the mirror-image match ups. The Zags have the biggest man in the Big Dance, bearded 7’1” Przemek Karnowski, a senior lumber jack with the touch of a gentle cat. Gonzaga has two more seven-footers and six bigs in all at least 6’9”. The Bulldogs also have big guards who are all 37 percent or better outside shooters. Overall, they are mostly comparable statistically to UNC.

Well-coached by Roy’s good buddy Mark Few, the Zags have a winning tradition over the last ten years and proven themselves tournament-tested in the current Dance. They would be trouble for Carolina even with all the Heels healthy, but truthfully that is not the case. As Joel Berry plays on heart and guts, bad ankles have clearly affected his ability to finish at the basket and square up from outside. Look for Joel II to be more of a playmaker than a scorer, trying to facilitate winning the war of the redwoods underneath.

David and Goliath? By rep, David is Gonzaga and Goliath is UNC’s monolithic brand. But the Heels need help from all of their bigs and the length of Theo and JJ to shut down the Zags outside. A Herculean effort equals redemption and a return home champions.

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