Chansky’s Notebook: Can Falcons Keep It Close?

Why are the Patriots overwhelming favorites to win Super Bowl LI?

Las Vegas odds makers have the game at three points, with New England favored. But the great majority of media polls have picked the Patriots to win their fifth Super Bowl over Atlanta, which lost in its only appearance in the big game. Why, you might ask, when the Falcons are the highest scoring offense in the NFL?

First has to be the experience of the franchise. Although Tom Brady is the only player to have appeared in the Patriots’ prior six Super Bowls under Bill Belichick, the pro program is steeped in the tradition of playing in this game. And part of that tradition is the planning of Belichick and his staff, who will try to find a scheme to slow down Matt Ryan and Company and exploit a vulnerable Falcons’ defense to score enough points to win.

Second is Brady, himself, who always is at his best in the biggest games, and with a chance to pass boyhood hero Joe Montana in Super Bowl victories this is perhaps the biggest game of the 39-year old’s career. He has been badgered all week about his friendship with Donald Trump and for more information about his sick mother. But potential distractions do not get traction with the unflappable TB12. Don’t expect anything but a top-of-line performance.

Finally are the legitimate questions about Atlanta’s defense against the NFL’s most versatile, if not highest-scoring, offense, and their own offense against a game plan that will surely limit Julio Jones, their other receivers and two-headed backfield. It is no secret that Belichick will seek to take away Julio’s explosive plays and cover the rest of the Falcons’ well enough to force them into third down and long situations and having to sustain drives to score.

Both teams are healthy for this time of the year, with Rob Gronkowski the only Patriot who is out and some injured Falcons at offensive line and secondary planning to play. It feels like a very close game early, but one that will shift on turnovers and key defensive stops, giving Brady more possessions than Ryan.

Unless Atlanta can reverse that probability, I think it is the Patriots by 10 points.