The last couple of weeks have been good ones for Democrats in the race for control of the U.S. Senate – at least according to the pollsters.

This week, Public Policy Polling released its latest North Carolina survey, showing incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan maintaining a four-point edge in her race against Republican challenger Thom Tillis. That’s unchanged from PPP’s previous survey – and recent surveys from other pollsters have found much the same thing.

PPP director Tom Jensen spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck last week (before PPP’s latest survey was released).

 

Jensen says the GOP still has a good chance of retaking control of the Senate in the November midterm – merely by picking up Democratic-held seats in Republican-leaning states – but he says Democrats are looking stronger in the so-called “purple” states like North Carolina and Michigan. Indeed Michigan may no longer be a “purple” state at all: though governor Rick Snyder is a Republican, Jensen says Michigan in general is “increasingly out of reach for Republicans” trying to win statewide office.

And while the GOP is still looking to gain seats in the Senate, Michigan’s turn is a sign of good news for Democrats when it comes to the presidential race – not just in 2016, but also beyond. While former “swing” states like Michigan have become reliably Democratic in recent presidential elections, former GOP strongholds like Virginia and North Carolina have turned purple – and that, Jensen says, means it’s “harder and harder for Republicans in presidential elections.” That’s especially true in 2016, he says, at least assuming Hillary Clinton decides to run: nationwide, Clinton currently polls stronger than Barack Obama did in 2012, and Obama won reelection by a fairly wide electoral-vote margin.

November 4 is Election Day this year. If you’re a North Carolina resident, the voter registration deadline is October 10.

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