The records are dead even – both teams 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the ACC. And they are mirror images of each other, playing a no huddle, fast-paced offense and an ameba-like 4-2-5 defense. So, it seems like an even game at Wallace Wade Stadium at 7 p.m. on national TV, even if it is ESPN with a U at the end.
But I always tell people that the surest way to predict the future is to look at the past. And Carolina has won an astonishing 21 of the last 22 games between these arch rivals who ARE dead even on the basketball court. Football has been a different story since Duke white-washed Carolina 41-0 in 1989 and posed in front of the scoreboard when some dummy from UNC should have turned it off!
The series was pretty even after that game 37-35 and 4 ties in Carolina’s favor. But Duke’s only win since then was in 2003. Now the Blue Devils believe that the circumstances have conspired to make this their year. Not so. Wallace Wade, as always will be half light blue, and the visiting team is better in every category. When Larry Fedora’s first season has hit a blip, the Heels have beaten themselves.
Both teams play the hurry-up offense, which by the rules can leave the defense out of position. If a team substitutes on offense, the defense has to have time to substitute, too. But if the same offensive players stay on the field, they can snap the ball as soon as they are ready. Carolina has been better catching opponents with 12 men on the field or not being lined up when Bryn Renner gets the ball.
Carolina’s NFL front line, led by future pros James Hurst and Jonathan Cooper, will blast open Duke’s defense, and Giovani Bernard will have a field day at night. The defense did a good job of keeping Miami from completing the long ball, and Duke’s offense isn’t better than the Hurricanes, whether pocket passer Sean Renfree or scrambler Anthony Boone plays quarterback.
And the UNC special teams, which punts and covers well, blocks kicks and tries trick plays, is still superior to the the Blue Devils.
So, it’s one, two, three what are we fighting for? Duke tries to get its sixth win and first bowl bid since 1994. Carolina tries to keep rolling toward 10-2 and the North Carolina state championship, whatever that means. This particular game, it means the Tar Heels in a blowout and 22 of the last 23.
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