UPDATE: How the North Carolina Tar Heels can make the College Football Playoff.  Week 13.

The North Carolina Tar Heels moved up to No. 17 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night.

But, could Carolina crack the top 4 of the final ranking from the College Football Playoff committee?

College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff

Yes.

It is more possible than you might think.

The reasons why the 9-1 Tar Heels are so low in the College Football Playoff rankings are well documented.  No team on Carolina’s schedule is currently ranked in the College Football Playoff top 25.  Every other ranked squad has at least two top 25 teams on their regular season schedule.  As a result, it will be tough for the committee to put the Tar Heels ahead of most one-loss teams.

Based on the remaining schedule, they might not matter.  Of course, I could just write about “disrespect.”  But, there’s no point to do that yet.  This week’s poll does not matter.  The next two polls also do not matter.

The last one matters.

So, here’s how the North Carolina Tar Heels can make the College Football Playoff.

College Football Playoff.

Not the Final Four.

It is not called the Final Four.

Do not call it the Final Four.

It is the College Football Playoff.

The Tar Heels must beat Virginia Tech and NC State to have any shot at consideration.  Then, they need to knock off an undefeated Clemson team to win the ACC Championship.

Of course.

But, that will not be enough.  The Tar Heels will need help.  There could be as many as eight teams in the Power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame) with fewer than two losses.  That would be a tough situation for the Tar Heels.

The college football schedule is backloaded.  Many of the teams above Carolina in the College Football Playoff rankings will face their toughest tests over the next three weeks.  If you take nothing else away from this article, recognize that it is very possible for the Tar Heels to be one of only 4 or 5 teams from a Power 5 conference with fewer than 2 losses.  That situation is workable for the Tar Heels.

Let’s take a look at the games that matter moving forward.  I’ll highlight who to root for when you are scoreboard watching.

Week 12

The Cupcakes

1 Clemson vs. Wake Forest
2 Alabama vs. Charleston Southern
4 Notre Dame vs. Boston College
5 Iowa vs. Purdue
8 Florida vs. Florida Atlantic

Expect the favorites to win easily.  These are teams that will get likely get playoff spots if they run the table (Alabama and Florida would see each other in the SEC Championship).  Feel free to root for the underdogs, but don’t get your hopes up.  If the Tar Heels’ hopes hinged on a Charleston Southern upset, this would all be a big waste of time.

The Big Ones

3 Ohio State vs. 9 Michigan State

The winner is in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Big Ten Championship game against (probably) Iowa.  You want Ohio State to win.  If the Buckeyes lose and then beat Michigan the following week, they will be a one-loss team without access to a championship game.

The College Football Playoff committee would absolutely consider sticking the Big Ten Champion and Ohio State into the playoff in this scenario.

That’s bad.

6 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Baylor
7 Oklahoma vs. 18 TCU

The Big 12 is basically in a late-season round-robin.  These four teams are fighting for one spot that might not exist (look at Notre Dame) in the College Football Playoff.

The Big 12 is certainly not getting two teams into the playoff.  If the chips fall a certain way, they may not get anybody.  Let’s go for that one.

You want the Texas teams (Baylor and TCU) to beat the Oklahoma teams.

The Medium Sized Ones

11 Stanford vs. Cal
13 Utah vs. UCLA
23 Oregon vs. 24 USC

A Pac-12 conference champion is a long-shot for the College Football Playoff.  Every Pac-12 team has at least two losses.  The only teams with fewer than three are Utah and Stanford.

Let’s root for UCLA to upset Utah (Go basketball schools!).

But, Stanford matters.

Stanford is your friend right now, Tar Heels.  So, you want to Stanford to keep winning.  For now.

Our Big One

17 North Carolina at Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels need another strong victory.  Without one, this is a pretty pointless article.

At least two teams ahead of the Tar Heels in the College Football Playoff standings will fall in Week 12.  Then, it gets really interesting.

Week 13

The Rivalries

1 Clemson at South Carolina

Stay undefeated, Clemson.

2 Alabama at Auburn

It’s hard to imagine the committee keeping the SEC out.  Let’s hope Auburn wins, anyway.  That’s more fun.

3 Ohio State at 12 Michigan

The Tar Heels’ rooting interest in this game is completely based off of whatever happens when Ohio State plays Michigan State.  If the Buckeyes beat the Spartans this week, you want Ohio State to win.

If Michigan State beats Ohio State, you definitely want Michigan to win.

Remember.  You don’t want a one-loss Ohio State team that does not win the Big Ten Championship.

6 Oklahoma State vs. 7 Oklahoma

You’re hoping this is a battle between a one-loss Oklahoma State and a two-loss Oklahoma.  In that situation, you want Oklahoma to win.  If that is not the situation, then you should expect the winner of this game to have a strong chance at scoring a College Football Playoff spot.

8 Florida vs. 14 Florida State

Go Florida State? A Seminole win strengthens the ACC and gives the Gators two losses.

Both good things.

10 Baylor at 18 TCU

Baylor still has to play Texas after this game.  So, you want them to beat TCU and then lose to Texas.

17 North Carolina at NC State

Make Carter-Finley empty by halftime.

The Biggest One

4 Notre Dame at 11 Stanford

Obviously, the NC State game is the most important contest of the day for North Carolina.

But…

Tar Heels need Stanford to win this game.

Chaos could open slots that appear destined for the SEC and Big Ten champions.  But, the single game that could change the College Football Playoff landscape is Notre Dame’s visit to Stanford.

Right now, the assumption is that the Big Ten and SEC champions will both get spots in the College Football Playoff.  If Clemson runs the table, they also get a spot.  Carolina needs more than a win over the Tigers to get that one.

Notre Dame is also expected to get a spot in the College Football Playoff if they win out.

But, it would be better for everybody, especially the Tar Heels, if they lose.

Go Stanford.

The Biggish Ones

5 Iowa at Nebraska

This game would be a helpful spot for an upset.  Go Cornhuskers.

9 Michigan State vs. Penn State

If Ohio State beats Michigan State this weekend, their game does not matter to the Tar Heels.  Either way, a Michigan State loss wouldn’t hurt.

Championship Week

ACC Championship

North Carolina needs to knock Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten and they need to do it convincingly.

Of course.

BIG Ten Championship

Most assume that the winner of this game gets a spot.  Especially if the winner is Ohio State, Michigan State, or Iowa.  You’re going to pull for whoever has the fewest losses going into this game.

Pac-12 Championship

Almost half of the conference is still in the running.  The Pac-12 could easily include no teams with fewer than three losses.  In our world, the fine folks at Stanford can take a loss here.  Just to keep this conference completely out of the College Football Playoff picture.

SEC Championship

The game will almost certainly feature Alabama and Florida.  The winner probably gets a spot in the College Football Playoff.  Probably Alabama.

Fine.

Big 12 Championship

There isn’t one.

Get one, Big 12.

But, Baylor is playing Texas.  The Longhorns could finish off the Big 12’s College Football Playoff hopes with a win.

The Tar Heels’ Hopes

To summarize, let’s just pencil in the SEC and Big Ten champions.

In our perfect Tar Heel world, the SEC champion will be Alabama after they defeat a Florida Gator team that just lost to their rival, Florida State.  That puts Alabama in with no other SEC team with a legitimate argument for the College Football Playoff.

Hope for the Big Ten champion to be Ohio State.  In an ideal situation, Iowa will lose two in a row.  The committee would consider a one-loss Big Ten championship losing Ohio State team.  They probably will not give Iowa the same consideration, but let’s not risk it.

If Stanford knocks off Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish will have two losses.  Again.  That is the simplest route for the Tar Heels’ hopes.

A lot will happen in the Big 12 over the next two weeks.  Let’s just hope they cancel each other out.  A Big 12 with four teams tied for the conference championship is the Tar Heels’ second best shot at the College Football Playoff.

This is fun.