Following back-to-back defeats on the road at ECU and Clemson, the 2-2 Tar Heels return home to Chapel Hill this weekend. UNC will welcome a 3-2 Virginia Tech squad for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff that VT head coach Frank Beamer is calling a “must-win” situation for both schools.
I can’t disagree with Coach Beamer there. Starting the ACC season 0-2 would be devastating, although the extreme parity in the Costal division may end up helping matters there.
VT and UNC will be meeting on the gridiron for the 37th time in an ancient series that dates back to 1895, with the Hokies leading the head-to-head 19-11-6, including 8-2 in ACC contests.
What has made this game so intriguing in recent seasons is that both teams fully expect to emerge victorious, no matter where the game is played. The sense of urgency will be there. Who will be able to channel that energy into a clean performance and a victory on Saturday?
Offense
The UNC offense is a bit of an enigma. When they’re hot, they’re on fire. When they’re cold, they’re freezing. If the Tar Heels can figure out a way to establish more consistency in the running game, they would take some pressure off of quarterbacks Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky, who show flashes of brilliance, but also struggle through dry periods as well. Last week at Death Valley, following a slow start, Williams got his game in gear. In the second half, Williams was 15 of 23 for 307 yards and three touchdowns. What’s more, the diversity of the offensive targets is impressive. Fifteen Tar Heels have caught a pass this season, led by Ryan Switzer with 19. Red zone efficiency hasn’t been much of an issue either. Carolina has scored on 17 of 18 red zone possessions this season, with 14 of the scores being touchdowns. Not bad. But until a specific running back emerges and the coaching staff chooses to feed the ball to him repeatedly, Carolina should expect to continue to experience streaky play from the offense.
As for the Hokies, they were dealt a tremendous blow last weekend. Standout freshman running back Shai McKenzie suffered a torn ACL and is now out for the remainder of the season. Replacing McKenzie’s production (269 yards, 3 touchdowns through 5 games) will be difficult, but Coach Beamer says Trey Edmunds, a back that ran well for VT in the latter half of 2013, will fill in nicely. At the quarterback position, the Hokies offer Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer. Brewer has struggled to take care of the football this season, tossing 10 interceptions. Brewer has a strong arm, but can he play a mistake-free game Saturday? We’ll see. At the end of the day, the Hokies will like their chances against a much-maligned UNC defense that has given up 120 points in the past two games.
EDGE: UNC
Defense
It’s weird to say that a defense improved when surrendering 50 points, but that’s exactly what the Tar Heels did last Saturday night at Clemson. The energy, for one, was at a completely different level. Tar Heels were flying to the ball and gang tackling. It was certainly a much more palatable effort for the UNC coaching staff than the 70-point debacle at ECU the week before. The issue, however, remains in the secondary. Cornerbacks and safeties are still getting burned, big time. The good news for the Tar Heels is that VT’s Brewer is probably a lower caliber of a signal caller than Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and ECU’s Shane Carden. But blown coverages and missed assignments will hurt you no matter who you’re playing. But the one saving grace for the defense is their proclivity for coming up with turnovers. The Tar Heels are 16th in the nation in turnover margin and 11th in interceptions. That opportunistic form will need to continue against Virginia Tech.
The Hokies have always hung their hat on defense. VT defensive coordinator Bud Foster is one of the best in the business. Ominously for Hokie opponents, Foster has the size, physicality and speed he likes in 2014. The Hokies lead the nation with 41 tackles for a loss and also top the national charts with 21 sacks. To put it mildly, the young Carolina offensive line will be challenged. Virginia Tech is disruptive and can hold their own in man-to-man coverage. If there is such a thing as a weakness in the VT defense, it’s in the secondary. The Hokies could be vulnerable to the big play Saturday.
EDGE: Virginia Tech
Special Teams/Intangibles
Both teams pride themselves on their play on special teams. Their punt and kickoff teams are dangerous. We all know about elusive UNC return man Switzer, but T.J. Logan leads the ACC in average kickoff return yardage this season. UNC head coach Larry Fedora, though, is still waiting for that game-changing play from his special teams unit. “Beamer Ball,” meanwhile, thrives on the ability to strike with a punt or field goal block. That’s a toss-up. But Kenan Stadium is sold out this weekend. That should provide a welcome boost to the Tar Heels.
EDGE: UNC
Prediction
This game promises to be a tight affair. Carolina clearly has an edge on offense, but the Hokies have a big advantage on the defensive side of the football. The question is…which side will win out? If history tells us anything, this one will be close on the scoreboard. Three of the last six meetings have been decided by a field goal. Although UNC will struggle to stop a determined VT offensive effort, over the course of four quarters, the Tar Heels will offer more scoring fireworks when they have the ball.
UNC 35, VT 31
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