The North Carolina Tar Heels look to back up their impressive 45-20 win at Duke with another rivalry win to close out the regular season. The 6-5 Tar Heels will welcome the N.C. State Wolfpack, also sporting a 6-5 record, to Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff in the 104th meeting of the series.

Both squads will like their chances heading into the contest. UNC has won four of its last five, while N.C. State is coming off a resounding 42-13 victory over Wake Forest and has enjoyed two weeks of preparation for their most hated adversary.

The Tar Heels have won the past two meetings in the rivalry, but before that, it was the Wolfpack that held the upper hand with five straight wins. Saturday’s collision promises to be full of emotion and intensity, but which team will best channel that energy into positive production?

 

Offense

The Tar Heels are formidable on this side of the ball, ranking second in the ACC in scoring offense, averaging 36.7 points per game. Carolina has accumulated 500 or more yards in four of the last six games, including a season-high 591 yards against Duke.

Junior signal caller Marquise Williams is not only the ACC Offensive Back of the Week for the fourth time this season, but also a candidate for ACC Player of the Year. Williams is a lethal dual threat QB at his most dangerous when on the scramble. N.C. State’s defenders will need to play disciplined and be careful to not over-pursue this week, or they run the risk of looking silly. And with Mack Hollins sprinting down the sidelines, Ryan Switzer darting into narrow lanes over the middle, Quinshad Davis (who only needs one more touchdown reception to tie Hakeem Nicks’ school record at 21) looming large as a sure-handed target and T.J. Logan running with rediscovered authority, Williams has plenty of offensive sidekicks at his disposal.

The Wolfpack offer a well-balanced offense conducted by Florida transfer QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett, much like Williams, is capable of hurting a defense with his arm and his legs. Brissett places third in the conference in the total offense category, trailing only FSU’s Jameis Winston and UNC’s Marquise Williams. Running back Shadrach Thornton, who leads a Wolfpack rushing offense ranked fourth in the ACC, can run downhill when he gets going and will relish his chances against a suspect UNC rush defense.

EDGE: UNC

 

Defense

The Tar Heels rank at or near the bottom of every major statistical category in the ACC. But they’ve shown some life in recent times – most notably with flashes against Pitt that were followed up by a complete performance at Duke. With Des Lawrence and Brian Walker playing better in the secondary, the Tar Heels haven’t been giving up as many explosive plays of late. Can it continue against the Wolfpack? There are still holes to be found by a high-performing offense, no doubt, but UNC has shown the ability to force timely turnovers and come up with surprising stops as well.

N.C. State has been up and down all season on defense. You never know what you’re going to get as the Wolfpack seem equally as likely to struggle and be torched for 50 points as to put the pieces all together and hold opponents down. Led by Art Norman, N.C. State likes to get after the quarterback and apply a ton of pressure when they can, but the Wolfpack have also struggled to stop the run, giving up 188.8 yards per contest. A rejuvenated T.J. Logan may be licking his lips.

EDGE: PUSH

 

Special Teams/Intangibles

Both teams are fairly sound in the special teams department. In fact, UNC tops the conference in kickoff coverage. But the question mark at the place-kicking position still leaves a rough scar on the Tar Heels. With no confidence in either Thomas Moore or Nick Weiler to make anything over 30 yards, UNC head coach Larry Fedora should be going for it on fourth down quite a bit on Saturday. The Wolfpack, meanwhile, have a bit more stability at that position thanks to Niklas Slade. In the intangibles, you know both teams will be fired up and prepared for battle. But the friendly confines of Kenan Stadium, where UNC has lost only once this season, should provide an extra boost for the Tar Heels on Senior Day.

EDGE: PUSH

 

Prediction

There should be plenty of fireworks in this regular season finale. But N.C. State would do well to establish the run game early, limit Carolina’s cracks at the ball and keep the crowd out of it with some initial offensive success. Playing from behind against the explosive Marquise Williams and company is not advised for the Wolfpack. On the other hand, the Tar Heels will make life much easier on themselves if they jump out to an early lead and apply pressure on Brissett and the N.C. State offense.

In the end, I think the UNC defense will force a turnover or two and produce a few more stops than the N.C. State defense. And that’s not because I like the Tar Heel defenders more than the Wolfpack defenders, it’s because I think the UNC offense is more equipped to take advantage.

UNC 41, NCSU 31

 

You can follow Matt on Twitter @moakes3