In the 2016 race for president, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have the edge in delegate counts, but Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders seem to have the momentum. Cruz and Sanders both scored decisive victories in Wisconsin earlier this week – and Sanders also won Saturday’s Wyoming caucus, giving him eight wins over Clinton in the last nine states.
But while Cruz and Sanders have been performing well, Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen says he expects the momentum to shift back to the frontrunners for at least the rest of this month.
That’s because the rest of the April primaries are taking place in Northeastern states: New York on Tuesday, April 19; Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island the following Tuesday, April 26. On the GOP side, the Northeast is Trump’s wheelhouse: he’s a New Yorker, which gives him an automatic edge, and Cruz’s evangelical appeal doesn’t play as well to Republicans in that region. On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Sanders can claim New York roots, but Clinton’s been polling better in the area. Also, nearly all of those April primaries are “closed” primaries – open only to registered Democrats, that is – and that favors Clinton, who consistently outpolls Sanders among registered Democrats. (Sanders outpolls Clinton among independents, so he benefits from “open” primaries where independents can vote as well.)
Get the full state-by-state primary calendar here.
Where do things stand nationally? Jensen says Clinton is still likely to end up winning the Democratic nomination, even though Sanders has been closing the gap – and on the Republican side, Trump will likely head into the July convention with a lead in the delegate count, but Cruz’s recent wins make it increasingly unlikely that Trump will be able to rack up enough delegates to avoid a contested convention.
Tom Jensen spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck this week.
Comments on Chapelboro are moderated according to our Community Guidelines