Duke Beats Trump, But Trump May Still Beat Clinton

North Carolina continues to be a tight battleground state in the race for President – and the fact that the race is tightening nationwide only makes our state that much more important.

In the latest survey conducted by Public Policy Polling – this one commissioned by the National Employment Law Project – Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45-44 in North Carolina. (This particular survey did not include Gary Johnson or Jill Stein as options.) Trump and Clinton each win 79 percent of the vote from members of their own party; Trump holds a 48-29 lead over Clinton among independents.

There are clear demographic gaps as well: Clinton leads Trump by 13 points among women (52-39), while Trump leads by 14 points among men (50-36); Trump has a huge lead among white voters, 59-29, but Clinton leads among African-Americans by an even more staggering margin of 90-1. (Clinton leads among Hispanic voters too, but by a narrower margin of 47-33.)

Nationwide, PPP’s August survey shows Clinton with a 5-point lead on Trump, 42-37 (with 6 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein). The 5-point margin is unchanged from PPP’s July survey – but the number of undecided voters doubled in the space of a month, from 5 percent in July to 10 percent in August. That’s unusual for a presidential election: typically, the number of undecided voters declines as Election Day draws nearer.

More results from PPP’s August national survey here.

Why are there more undecided voters now? PPP director Tom Jensen says he thinks it’s because the two major candidates are extremely unpopular. (In fact, their already-low approval ratings are still in decline.) Clinton’s approval rating is only 41 percent (with a 52 percent disapproval rating) – but Trump is even more unpopular, with only 33 percent of voters approving of him and 60 percent disapproving.

(How unpopular is Donald Trump? PPP tested him head-to-head against other notably unpopular things and found he’s slightly more popular than junk mail, mosquitoes, and Ryan Lochte – but less popular than public restrooms, the middle seat on an airplane, and Duke University.)

Tom Jensen discussed the latest national numbers – as well as the NELP-commissioned North Carolina survey – on WCHL with Aaron Keck.

 

Other recent survey results:

• PPP continues to find that Trump voters distrust the democratic process to a shocking degree: though there’s still no evidence of widespread voter fraud, 59 percent of Trump voters nationwide believe that about 10-25 percent of the votes that get counted are fraudulently cast. (And 67 percent of Trump voters believe that if Clinton is ultimately declared the winner this fall, it will only be because the election was rigged.)
• In addition to the predictable demographic gaps, there’s also a gap between voters who’ve visited a public library this year (54-37 for Clinton) and voters who haven’t (53-39 for Trump).
• 67 percent of voters believe Donald Trump should release his tax returns – but it’s not clear whether his refusal to do so will actually sway any of their votes.
• What might sway voters is how the candidates stand on a minimum wage increase. In North Carolina, Republican incumbent Richard Burr narrowly leads Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 46-43, in the race for US Senate. But 72 percent of North Carolinians support an increase in the federal minimum wage, 62 percent support increasing it to $15 per hour – and Ross actually takes a lead on Burr, 45-42, when voters are informed that Burr opposes a minimum wage increase. (Fair warning on that result, though: it’s from the survey that was commissioned by NELP, which favors a $15 minimum wage.)

Tom Jensen and Aaron Keck also discussed the results of PPP’s recent survey in Utah – which showed Trump with a sizable lead on Clinton, despite being unpopular among Mormon voters – as well as the state of the gubernatorial race in North Carolina, where recent polls show Roy Cooper with a lead on Pat McCrory.