You saw two teams going in opposite directions Tuesday night. Unfortunately, the team trending downward is Carolina, which suffered its fifth defeat in the last seven games and its fourth loss in the Smith Center this season, scoring its fewest points ever in Dean’s Dome.

The Tar Heels have now lost at home seven times in the last two seasons, with only Senior Night remaining against Duke on March 7. A loss there will tie the 2010 NIT team for the most home defeats in the Roy Williams era. It’s all about recruiting, but I’ll get to that later.

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Basketball is a pretty simple game. If you can’t score, you can’t win against good teams. The Tar Heels can’t score consistently from inside or outside from a set offense, and N.C. State has matured into a good team, one of the best in the ACC.

Carolina’s post men are big and talented but soft and malleable. Basketball coaches like players who keep their “motors” running. You cannot say that about either Brice Johnson or Kennedy Meeks. Their numbers are good because of their size and skill, but they are nice guys and not tough guys. Tough guys win more than nice guys. Tough guys protect late leads and close out games. Tough guys complete dramatic rallies at home.

Meeks had a double-double against State, his eighth of the season. But some of his misses were from a lack of aggression. Johnson, who averages 12.5 points and 7.8 rebounds (almost identical numbers to Meeks), was a virtual no-show, missing five of six shots and coming down with only five rebounds. Maybe he was ill.

“Pump fake and go at him strong,” Williams said of The Wolfpack’s three bigs. “Don’t pump fake 17 times and try and make the softest shot in the history of basketball. You’ve got to be tough. It’s a physical game and you’ve got to be strong. If you don’t have a good shot, throw it back out and re-post.”

The perimeter was outplayed by what looked like better players at each position. State point guard “Cat” Barber controlled the game with his dribble drives and dishes, and Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner are dead-eye marksmen from the arc. They can hit with a hand in their face, and leaving them wide open (as happened three times Tuesday night) is like giving them a layup. The trio took 41 of State’s 57 shots and combined for 43 points, most of them in the clutch.

Face it: the regular season has three games left and Marcus Paige, J.P. Tokoto and Justin Jackson have to be termed disappointments. Jackson led his team in scoring with 17 points and took seven more shots than anyone else because he is at least aggressive for a freshman. Off the bench, Joel Berry looks like he’s going to be a good player someday, and on the bench the injured Theo Pinson’s speed is missed on both ends pf the floor.

Carolina’s great run in the second half, cutting a 16-point deficit to 2, came from its best stretch of defense and almost all fast break baskets. State coach Mark Gottfried called three timeouts within three minutes (when he had a TV timeout coming on the next whistle) to try to stop the run, and the Pack finally did by outscoring the suddenly sloppy Tar Heels 13-5 to cap the 58-46 final score.

It’s no secret that Williams’ teams have won by running (with superior talent) over the years, and opponents now emphasize getting back and making the Tar Heels play from a set offense, where they are average at best. Many possessions begin with the old box-set that Carolina has used for 25 years. You know it is coming when Williams holds up both hands and forms a box. The Heels don’t score much out of that set, and in the free-lance that follows they aren’t the great players they once were with the recruiting mistakes and misses of the last three years. Maybe some new and different set plays are in order.

All that played beautifully into State’s game plan, which was to guard the hell out of the Heels and make them play defense for most of the shot clock. Although the Tar Heels were pretty good defensively, holding State to 35 percent shooting, they gave up baskets at the end of the clock several times. Frustrating, because playing D for that long is harder when the ball is not going in on the other end.

So here’s the good news AND the bad news. Carolina has everyone back next season – the team that can’t score. Recruiting has been killed by the academic scandal that has left UNC Athletics in limbo, and as of now Williams (who admits he’s missed on 6 of his top 8 targets so far) does not have one front-line player coming into the program next fall.

So unless Meeks and Johnson find some Samurai summer camp where they learn to be predators of the paint and Paige, Tokoto and Johnson cure whatever is ailing them on the offensive end, it could be the same old, same old in 2016.

February generally yields a season of improvement or being exposed. Guess which one applies to the Tar Heels. There’s an old basketball adage that says if teams don’t have it together in February, they ain’t getting it together.

Maybe Meeks and Johnson will wake up one morning this week and decide they are going to seriously take it to Miami Saturday, and the three guards will suddenly discover their shooting touches and move better without the ball.

Maybe. But the best way to predict the future is always to look at the past. And for Carolina, that past gets worse with every game.