In January, I made predictions for what I expected would be important science stories during 2014, five positive ones and four negative. Now it is time to see how well I did. Below I review my predictions, tell you what did or didn’t happen, and give myself a score on a scale of 1 to 5 for accuracy.

Positive Predictions

  1. Kick and Kill for HIV

What makes HIV very difficult to cure is its tendency to lie dormant inside of cells for long periods of time, making it invisible to the immune system. Many researchers are looking for ways to wake the dormant virus (the “kick”) so that it can then be eliminated by existing anti-HIV drugs (the “kill”).

I predicted a breakthrough on this front during 2014. While there was no big news on “kick and kill,” something else interesting did happen. Dr. Jennifer Doudna and her team at Berkeley developed a very precise and specific technique for splicing DNA molecules, known as CRISPR. Researchers at Temple University used CRISPR to slice up DNA within dormant HIV viruses hiding inside of human cells (effectively killing them), thus opening a possible and exciting pathway to a cure of AIDS. It’s not “kick and kill,” but the effect is the same, so I am giving myself a score of 3 out of 5.

  1. NASA Space Elevator

While I was mourning the cancellation of the Space Shuttle program, I predicted that NASA would start a program to build a space elevator during 2014. The key idea of this concept is to slowly pull a space vehicle to a platform suspended above the Earth’s atmosphere. This approach would dramatically reduce the cost of space flight because most of the investment and equipment is devoted to accelerating the craft away from the earth’s gravity and through the resistance provided by the atmosphere. I hoped that a project like this would help to revive both investment and interest in space exploration.

While there has been no movement on an elevator, we are making significant progress on getting back to manned space flight. This month NASA’s Orion capsule made its first test flight. Although this flight was unmanned, in the future the Orion is scheduled to take men and women to nearby asteroids and also provide data which could help us to design a ship which could transport people to Mars. I’m giving myself 2 out 5 on this one.

  1. Solar Cheaper than Coal

Due to ongoing improvements in technology, the cost of solar power keeps dropping. So much so that I predicted that during 2014, solar power would be touted as becoming definitively and demonstrably cheaper than coal. While I have read many stories addressing this question during the year, they are often muddled by the various assumptions used to calculate costs. For me, if you include the full cost of coal, including such things the proper disposal of coal ash, solar is the clear winner. However, my prediction was that this conclusion would enter the popular consciousness during 2014. I can’t really say that it has, so I am only giving myself a 1 out 5 on this one.

  1. Biodiesel

Biodiesel, at least as commonly produced, is an environmental blight.(1) Government incentives to produce ever-increasing quantities of biodiesel are driving deforestation, particularly in Brazil, as well as crowding out food production on existing farmland. Due to these factors, I predicted a noteworthy decline in the biodiesel’s reputation during the year. I have seen several stories to this effect, but nothing dramatic has happened. I think this one is at best a 2 out of 5.

  1. Specific Chemotherapy

The biggest weakness of chemotherapy is that it is given systemically. Therefore, the concentration of toxic drugs is just as high in non-diseased areas of the body as it is in the tumor. As a result, physicians have to strike a delicate balance of providing enough drugs to destroy the tumor, while not killing the patient from its side effects.

For decades now, people have been trying to develop an effective way to deliver chemotherapeutic agents selectively to the tumor. This would spare the patient from the side effects while increasing the chances of clearing the tumor. I’ve read many stories during 2014 on miscellaneous attempts to make this work. But, alas, there have been no major breakthroughs. I’m giving myself only 1 out of 5.

Negative Predictions

  1. Two Storms Hit Pensacola

Statistics tell us that, just like the same person getting struck by lightning twice, that one of these years the same city on the Atlantic coast of the United States will be struck by a hurricane twice in the same year. I went out on a statistical limb and predicted that Pensacola, FL would suffer this fate during 2014. It turns out that due to an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean this year, the Atlantic hurricane season was quite mild and Pensacola was spared.(2)

However, over in the Pacific, the big island of Hawaii was hit by hurricanes Iselle and Julio in rapid succession. So I had the ocean wrong, but the phenomenon correct. Therefore, I am giving myself 3 out of 5 on this one.

  1. Liberian Food Riots

Liberia has leased out substantial portions of its arable land to foreign countries and corporations so that they can produce oil for biodiesel. The Liberian government then uses the cash from this practice to buy and import food stuffs such as rice. This system makes Liberia particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global food supply and prices. I predicted that this vulnerability, plus a strain on global food supply from an unknown source, would lead to unrest in Liberia during 2014.

The strain came in the form of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. While the resulting disruption to food supply and distribution did result in some serious difficulties, Liberia was spared any noteworthy civil unrest. I am giving myself a score of 2 out 5 on this one. In addition, I need to give a shout out to both the medical staff of Liberia and Doctors Without Borders, who did a remarkable job of containing the Ebola outbreak.

  1. Chicken Sales to Drop

During 2013, there were many reports that the vast majority of chicken sold in our supermarkets is contaminated with bacteria. Furthermore, more and more of these bacteria have been found to be the scary, antibiotic-resistant kind. I predicted that all of this bad press would lead to a reduction in U.S. chicken sales in 2014. I was wrong.

Chicken sales in the U.S. in 2014 are on track to be 1.8% higher than in 2013. This is driven in part by sales of a product called Chicken Fries by Burger King. A determination from the Vatican on whether or not the existence of Chicken Fries qualifies as one of the seven signs of the apocalypse should be announced in early 2015.(3) I had to give myself a 0 out of 5 on this one.

  1. Fracking in the Ukraine

In late 2013, Russia was exerting both political and economic pressure on Ukraine by threatening to cut off supplies of natural gas. I predicted that this would inspire the Ukrainian government to reach out to oil and gas companies around the world to explore possibilities for fracking. Almost monthly throughout the year, I read a new report of a deal struck with an international drilling company for fracking with the government in Ukraine. This is the only prediction for which I am giving myself 5 out of 5.

Total Score

Overall I gave myself 19 out of a possible 45 points, for a score of 42%. On the one hand, 42% is kind of pathetic.  On the other, my predictions were rather bold, so 42% doesn’t feel too bad. Most importantly, I had fun making the predictions and monitoring their progress throughout the year, and hope you did as well.

 

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  1. By contrast, Piedmont Biofuels in Pittsboro uses waste grease from restaurants as an oil source for its products.  This is a very environmentally sound practice.
  2. I addressed why an El Nino in the Pacific impacts the Atlantic hurricane season in Hello Arthur.
  3. This is a joke.